TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vaclav Hejda Jr vs Jan Vonasek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121188111311116
Jan Vonasek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 101 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 56.2%
101 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 45–56 Jan Vonasek Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 45 of their 101 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-56 in 101
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 101, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1572 vs Vonasek 1582
Vonasek
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Vonasek 80%
Vonasek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Vonasek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Vonasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.10 / Vonasek 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Vonasek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13186845
Jr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 86 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Vonasek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 71 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayVonasek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%4 of 6
AwayVonasek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Vonasek4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr3Vonasek7n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S4Jr5Vonasek2n = 7Jr took 5 of 7
S5Jr0Vonasek3n = 3Vonasek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrVonasekJ − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.041.6−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 782 vs 356 / 72649%49%383 / 782 vs 356 / 726Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekJr 2.10/Vonasek 1.67
Miss
What we said
56.2%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 08:55V. Jr237880J. Vonasek331111113
WSep 16 · 07:55V. Jr4313117123J. Vonasek3811611101
WSep 14 · 10:50V. Jr361312113J. Vonasek29111080
LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr31712571J. Vonasek43111011113
LAug 31 · 10:20V. Jr33135150J. Vonasek431511173
LAug 27 · 13:25V. Jr4341181192J. Vonasek48118117113
WAug 26 · 09:25V. Jr4411129123J. Vonasek3981011101
WAug 17 · 12:55V. Jr4313712113J. Vonasek4111111091
LAug 7 · 10:29V. Jr4711911882J. Vonasek47711711113
LAug 7 · 08:25V. Jr4711871562J. Vonasek559111113113
V. Jr10
LSep 24 · 10:45V. Jr2.25811111092O. Fiklik1.57119612113LSep 24 · 07:55A. Langer1.9171114113V. Jr1.801171271WSep 24 · 07:25O. Fiklik1.61911117112V. Jr2.20115911133LSep 18 · 10:09V. Jr1.831111581A. Langer1.8313611113LSep 18 · 08:55V. Jr2.207880J. Vonasek1.611111113LSep 18 · 07:55V. Jr2.2011129932O. Fiklik1.617101111113WSep 18 · 06:55V. Jr1.831171011113A. Langer1.8381112882WSep 16 · 10:30A. Rek1.5011781542V. Jr2.459111113113LSep 16 · 09:25V. Jr2.50615331A. Rek1.50111311113WSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek1.6111611101V. Jr2.2013117123
J. Vonasek10
WSep 24 · 10:15J. Vonasek1.5011116113A. Langer2.50781191LSep 24 · 08:25J. Vonasek2.00511881O. Fiklik1.7311711113WSep 24 · 06:55A. Langer2.38112481J. Vonasek1.5361111113WSep 21 · 10:45J. Vonasek1.731111133D. Sochor2.0065110WSep 21 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.73114113102J. Vonasek2.00611811123WSep 21 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.9161115113D. Sochor1.801121381LSep 21 · 06:55A. Langer2.5011119113J. Vonasek1.50471191LSep 20 · 17:35M. Sulc3.00913116123J. Vonasek1.361111911102WSep 18 · 08:55V. Jr2.207880J. Vonasek1.611111113LSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek1.6111611101V. Jr2.2013117123
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