TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Vonasek vs Pavel Benes 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611911––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Pavel Benes at 70.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 8–16 Pavel Benes Jan Vonasek has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:41What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-16 in 24
Benes
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1600 vs Benes 1693
Benes
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 60% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 70% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek +3 · Benes -1
Vonasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 2.75 / Benes 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Benes)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13213899
Vonasek2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 65 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Benes1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 75 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek2wins
AwayBenes8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek20%1 of 5
AwayBenes80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Vonasek1Benes9n = 10Benes took 9 of 10
S3Vonasek1Benes9n = 10Benes took 9 of 10
S4Vonasek1Benes5n = 6Benes took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekBenesV − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match29.639.1−9.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 714 vs 262 / 54949.3%47.7%352 / 714 vs 262 / 549Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesVonasek 2.75/Benes 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 10:35J. Vonasek47414711113P. Benes41111211342
LAug 21 · 06:55J. Vonasek204970P. Benes331111113
LAug 13 · 10:04J. Vonasek135530P. Benes331111113
WAug 13 · 07:25J. Vonasek551311119113P. Benes50111361192
LAug 10 · 10:05J. Vonasek31135941P. Benes44111111113
LAug 10 · 06:55J. Vonasek34129581P. Benes43101111113
LJul 25 · 10:29J. Vonasek28113861P. Benes4291111113
LJul 25 · 08:55J. Vonasek228680P. Benes331111113
LJul 24 · 14:24J. Vonasek30119191P. Benes3961111113
LJul 24 · 12:25J. Vonasek164750P. Benes331111113
J. Vonasek10
WSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer2.507950J. Vonasek1.501111113WSep 29 · 10:50V. Hejda Jr2.1061161272J. Vonasek1.671191110113WSep 24 · 10:15J. Vonasek1.5011116113A. Langer2.50781191LSep 24 · 09:25V. Hejda Jr2.101011813113J. Vonasek1.67128111162LSep 24 · 08:25J. Vonasek2.00511881O. Fiklik1.7311711113WSep 24 · 06:55A. Langer2.38112481J. Vonasek1.5361111113WSep 21 · 10:45J. Vonasek1.731111133D. Sochor2.0065110WSep 21 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.73114113102J. Vonasek2.00611811123WSep 21 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.9161115113D. Sochor1.801121381LSep 21 · 06:55A. Langer2.5011119113J. Vonasek1.50471191
P. Benes10
LSep 29 · 11:50P. Benes1.53138711122V. Hejda Jr2.381111115143WSep 29 · 10:20A. Langer2.75911871P. Benes1.4011911113WSep 28 · 22:25A. Kosacky1.67119161042P. Benes2.103111412113LSep 28 · 21:25A. Kosacky1.7391111113P. Benes2.00116881WSep 28 · 20:25P. Benes1.53121111113M. Kulisek2.38148771WSep 28 · 18:55O. Fiklik2.1012811872P. Benes1.671011611113WSep 23 · 14:02P. Benes1.33111116113D. Vesecky3.25761891WSep 23 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.574450P. Benes2.251111113LSep 23 · 12:25P. Benes3.007460M. Cerny1.361111113LSep 23 · 10:55J. Kocab2.001111113P. Benes1.732980
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