TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Benes vs Jan Vonasek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811114811911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:47 and never touched: 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Pavel Benes at 72.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 17–8 Jan Vonasek Jan Vonasek has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Benes beat Vonasek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Benes
Wrong
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1704 vs Vonasek 1590
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 60% vs Vonasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 70% vs Vonasek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +1 · Vonasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.36 / Vonasek 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Benes)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13216786
Benes1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 75 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Vonasek3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 65 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes8wins
AwayVonasek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes80%4 of 5
AwayVonasek20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Benes9Vonasek1n = 10Benes took 9 of 10
S3Benes9Vonasek1n = 10Benes took 9 of 10
S4Benes5Vonasek1n = 6Benes took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesVonasekB − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.130.1+9.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 550 vs 352 / 71547.8%49.2%263 / 550 vs 352 / 715Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.36/Vonasek 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.8%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 12:50P. Benes331111113J. Vonasek216690
LAug 21 · 10:35P. Benes41111211342J. Vonasek47414711113
WAug 21 · 06:55P. Benes331111113J. Vonasek204970
WAug 13 · 10:04P. Benes331111113J. Vonasek135530
LAug 13 · 07:25P. Benes50111361192J. Vonasek551311119113
WAug 10 · 10:05P. Benes44111111113J. Vonasek31135941
WAug 10 · 06:55P. Benes43101111113J. Vonasek34129581
WJul 25 · 10:29P. Benes4291111113J. Vonasek28113861
WJul 25 · 08:55P. Benes331111113J. Vonasek228680
WJul 24 · 14:24P. Benes3961111113J. Vonasek30119191
P. Benes10
WSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113LSep 29 · 11:50P. Benes1.53138711122V. Hejda Jr2.381111115143WSep 29 · 10:20A. Langer2.75911871P. Benes1.4011911113WSep 28 · 22:25A. Kosacky1.67119161042P. Benes2.103111412113LSep 28 · 21:25A. Kosacky1.7391111113P. Benes2.00116881WSep 28 · 20:25P. Benes1.53121111113M. Kulisek2.38148771WSep 28 · 18:55O. Fiklik2.1012811872P. Benes1.671011611113WSep 23 · 14:02P. Benes1.33111116113D. Vesecky3.25761891WSep 23 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.574450P. Benes2.251111113LSep 23 · 12:25P. Benes3.007460M. Cerny1.361111113
J. Vonasek10
LSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113WSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer2.507950J. Vonasek1.501111113WSep 29 · 10:50V. Hejda Jr2.1061161272J. Vonasek1.671191110113WSep 24 · 10:15J. Vonasek1.5011116113A. Langer2.50781191LSep 24 · 09:25V. Hejda Jr2.101011813113J. Vonasek1.67128111162LSep 24 · 08:25J. Vonasek2.00511881O. Fiklik1.7311711113WSep 24 · 06:55A. Langer2.38112481J. Vonasek1.5361111113WSep 21 · 10:45J. Vonasek1.731111133D. Sochor2.0065110WSep 21 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.73114113102J. Vonasek2.00611811123WSep 21 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.9161115113D. Sochor1.801121381
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