TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ladislav Moravec vs Jan Vonasek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81171112101210119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched: 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 75.1%
101 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 6–14 Jan Vonasek Ladislav Moravec has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0975.1%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
clears by 1.7pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1440 vs Vonasek 1610
Vonasek
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Vonasek 60%
Vonasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Vonasek 70%
Vonasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -2 · Vonasek +3
Vonasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 3.00 / Vonasek 1.363
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Vonasek)+1.7pp
TT Cup · #13225001
Moravec3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 28 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Vonasek1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 75 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec1wins
AwayVonasek9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravecn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayVonasek90%9 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec0Vonasek10n = 10Vonasek took 10 of 10
S2Moravec6Vonasek4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Moravec4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S4Moravec1Vonasek6n = 7Vonasek took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecVonasekM − VBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match32.539.5−7.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 282 vs 353 / 71741.8%49.2%118 / 282 vs 353 / 717Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekMoravec 3.00/Vonasek 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 22 · 17:25L. Moravec31711761J. Vonasek4211911113
LFeb 24 · 13:55L. Moravec2510690J. Vonasek341211113
LFeb 18 · 09:20L. Moravec3681111242J. Vonasek49119711113
LFeb 17 · 11:55L. Moravec2073100J. Vonasek341111123
LFeb 10 · 13:25L. Moravec361311661J. Vonasek4515811113
LFeb 3 · 11:55L. Moravec33941191J. Vonasek3911116113
LJan 20 · 11:55L. Moravec46712115112J. Vonasek491110411133
LJan 13 · 12:55L. Moravec355119101J. Vonasek3711311123
WSep 18 · 11:40L. Moravec4281211113J. Vonasek331110841
LMar 25 · 07:55L. Moravec219570J. Vonasek331111113
L. Moravec10
LOct 1 · 11:20L. Moravec2.00981171M. Filipek1.7311119113LOct 1 · 10:20L. Moravec2.757101111112A. Langer1.40111247133WSep 29 · 14:30L. Moravec1.601111113F. Balcar2.209390WSep 29 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.83119551L. Moravec1.8351111113LSep 29 · 12:25L. Moravec1.73691891F. Marat2.00111116113WSep 29 · 10:55F. Balcar2.2011891292L. Moravec1.619111110113LSep 24 · 14:13F. Marat2.10891113113L. Moravec1.67111181152LSep 24 · 12:55L. Moravec1.448612101F. Marat2.63111110123WSep 24 · 11:55L. Moravec1.5311911113R. Jamrich2.38411851LSep 24 · 10:55L. Moravec2.6310490A. Kral1.441211113
J. Vonasek10
WOct 1 · 11:50A. Langer2.50111110592J. Vonasek1.50841211113WOct 1 · 10:50J. Vonasek1.6111116113M. Filipek2.20891181WSep 30 · 09:58J. Vonasek1.91411116133O. Fiklik1.80115711112WSep 30 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.919111051J. Vonasek1.8011512113LSep 30 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.7391311111V. Hejda Jr2.0011158133LSep 30 · 06:55A. Langer2.63111189113J. Vonasek1.4417111192WSep 29 · 13:50P. Benes1.36811891J. Vonasek3.0011411113LSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113WSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer2.507950J. Vonasek1.501111113WSep 29 · 10:50V. Hejda Jr2.1061161272J. Vonasek1.671191110113
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