TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Vonasek vs Martin Filipek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119611118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Jan Vonasek @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 57.7%
75 points played in total.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:4757.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1600 vs Filipek 1559
Vonasek
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 60% vs Filipek 40%
Vonasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 60% vs Filipek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek +2 · Filipek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 1.615 / Filipek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Vonasek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224260
Vonasek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 75 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Filipek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 73 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 716 vs 270 / 60249.2%44.9%352 / 716 vs 270 / 602Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekVonasek 1.61/Filipek 2.20
Hit
What we said
57.7%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jan Vonasek @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
3–1
Vonasek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Vonasek10
WOct 1 · 11:50A. Langer2.50111110592J. Vonasek1.50841211113WSep 30 · 09:58J. Vonasek1.91411116133O. Fiklik1.80115711112WSep 30 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.919111051J. Vonasek1.8011512113LSep 30 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.7391311111V. Hejda Jr2.0011158133LSep 30 · 06:55A. Langer2.63111189113J. Vonasek1.4417111192WSep 29 · 13:50P. Benes1.36811891J. Vonasek3.0011411113LSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113WSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer2.507950J. Vonasek1.501111113WSep 29 · 10:50V. Hejda Jr2.1061161272J. Vonasek1.671191110113WSep 24 · 10:15J. Vonasek1.5011116113A. Langer2.50781191
M. Filipek10
WOct 1 · 11:20L. Moravec2.00981171M. Filipek1.7311119113WSep 30 · 14:08R. Jamrich1.839811121M. Filipek1.8311116143LSep 30 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0011118113M. Filipek1.73391151LSep 30 · 12:25F. Marat1.7311811113M. Filipek2.00911781LSep 30 · 11:25M. Filipek1.731111871R. Jamrich2.0081311113WSep 29 · 10:30M. Filipek1.601312113A. Kral2.20111090WSep 29 · 08:55J. Srnka1.73891211102M. Filipek2.001111105123WSep 29 · 08:25A. Kral2.208860M. Filipek1.611111113WSep 29 · 07:25M. Filipek2.101111113F. Marat1.673680LSep 23 · 10:30A. Kral1.91261111113M. Filipek1.8011118392
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