TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Srnka vs Martin Filipek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81191112101151012
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Srnka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Srnka above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 99 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Jan Srnka at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jan Srnka 3–1 Martin Filipek Martin Filipek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:47What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Srnka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Srnka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Srnka 1536 vs Filipek 1579
Filipek
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Srnka 20% vs Filipek 60%
Filipek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Srnka 40% vs Filipek 70%
Filipek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Srnka -2 · Filipek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Srnka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Srnka form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrnka 1.73 / Filipek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Srnka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13213886
Srnka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 34 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Filipek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 73 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back26% 24 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSrnka3wins
AwayFilipek1wins
Srnka leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Srnka2Filipek2n = 4split evenly
S2Srnka3Filipek1n = 4Srnka took 3 of 4
S3Srnka3Filipek1n = 4Srnka took 3 of 4
S4Srnka2Filipek1n = 3Srnka took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSrnkaFilipekS − FBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match39.035.2+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrnkaFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 150 vs 267 / 59755.3%44.7%83 / 150 vs 267 / 597Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SrnkaSrnka 1.73/Filipek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Srnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 24 · 14:03J. Srnka32115881M. Filipek4291111113
WAug 24 · 13:25J. Srnka54211111113M. Filipek42234781
WAug 14 · 11:25J. Srnka3741111113M. Filipek34118871
WAug 11 · 10:50J. Srnka331111113M. Filipek236980
J. Srnka10
LSep 29 · 07:55J. Srnka2.0011117672F. Marat1.73791111113LSep 29 · 06:55J. Srnka2.501161281A. Kral1.5031114113WSep 8 · 09:53J. Srnka1.804111011133P. Chlumsky1.91119127112LSep 8 · 08:55J. Srnka2.2551161192P. Chlumsky1.57117116113LSep 8 · 07:55J. Srnka1.736990R. Jamrich2.001111113WSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121LSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 08:55T. Rein2.63151311662J. Srnka1.441711611113LSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060WSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161
M. Filipek10
WSep 29 · 08:25A. Kral2.208860M. Filipek1.611111113WSep 29 · 07:25M. Filipek2.101111113F. Marat1.673680LSep 23 · 10:30A. Kral1.91261111113M. Filipek1.8011118392LSep 23 · 09:25M. Filipek1.73911861A. Kral2.0011811113WSep 23 · 07:55F. Balcar1.91612101152M. Filipek1.801110127113WSep 23 · 07:25R. Jamrich1.8369111192M. Filipek1.83111167113WSep 22 · 10:40M. Filipek2.0011411133B. Budik1.647118111WSep 22 · 08:55R. Muller2.109890M. Filipek1.671111113LSep 22 · 08:25F. Balcar1.91612811133M. Filipek1.801110119112WSep 22 · 07:25M. Filipek1.86911117113B. Budik1.8311741152
Upcoming Matches
J. Srnka
Nothing scheduled
M. Filipek
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