TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Frantisek Balcar vs Martin Filipek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61112101012117511
Martin Filipek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 95 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Martin Filipek at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 23–14 Martin Filipek Martin Filipek has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:48What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-14 in 37
Balcar
Wrong
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1509 vs Filipek 1569
Filipek
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 20% vs Filipek 60%
Filipek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 50% vs Filipek 70%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar -3 · Filipek +2
Balcar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filipek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balcar form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 1.91 / Filipek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Filipek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13180661
Balcar1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 41 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Filipek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 51 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalcar8wins
AwayFilipek2wins
7 of 10 to a deciderBalcar leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcar100%4 of 4
AwayFilipek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcar4Filipek6n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S2Balcar7Filipek3n = 10Balcar took 7 of 10
S3Balcar6Filipek4n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S4Balcar3Filipek5n = 8Filipek took 5 of 8
S5Balcar6Filipek1n = 7Balcar took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalcarFilipekB − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match46.743.5+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 241 vs 268 / 60349.4%44.4%119 / 241 vs 268 / 603Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekBalcar 1.91/Filipek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 08:25F. Balcar50612811133M. Filipek521110119112
WSep 21 · 14:45F. Balcar331111113M. Filipek196670
WSep 21 · 11:25F. Balcar581514711113M. Filipek561312111372
WSep 16 · 10:20F. Balcar501411113113M. Filipek4216451162
WSep 7 · 09:25F. Balcar4061111123M. Filipek361196101
WSep 4 · 11:25F. Balcar501161111113M. Filipek4141161372
LJul 20 · 11:25F. Balcar268990M. Filipek331111113
WJul 20 · 06:55F. Balcar49711128113M. Filipek47118101172
LJul 17 · 06:55F. Balcar5388111792M. Filipek531111515113
WJul 16 · 13:20F. Balcar58111998113M. Filipek56917111182
F. Balcar10
LSep 23 · 06:55F. Balcar2.208118101A. Kral1.6111811123LSep 22 · 10:10R. Muller1.92712911113F. Balcar1.78111011892LSep 22 · 09:25B. Budik1.874111319113F. Balcar1.83116151752WSep 22 · 08:25F. Balcar1.91612811133M. Filipek1.801110119112LSep 22 · 06:55R. Muller2.251111133F. Balcar1.5787110WSep 21 · 14:45F. Balcar1.801111113M. Filipek1.906670WSep 21 · 13:25F. Balcar1.571281110113P. Chlumsky2.25101171232WSep 21 · 11:55A. Kral1.5711911882F. Balcar2.25811811113WSep 21 · 11:25M. Filipek1.801312111372F. Balcar1.911514711113LSep 16 · 13:59F. Balcar2.00891391T. Hnizdil1.73111111113
M. Filipek10
WSep 23 · 07:25R. Jamrich1.8369111192M. Filipek1.83111167113WSep 22 · 10:40M. Filipek2.0011411133B. Budik1.647118111WSep 22 · 08:55R. Muller2.109890M. Filipek1.671111113LSep 22 · 08:25F. Balcar1.91612811133M. Filipek1.801110119112WSep 22 · 07:25M. Filipek1.86911117113B. Budik1.8311741152LSep 21 · 14:45F. Balcar1.801111113M. Filipek1.906670WSep 21 · 12:55A. Kral2.00971513102M. Filipek1.7311111311123WSep 21 · 12:25P. Chlumsky1.573790M. Filipek2.251111113LSep 21 · 11:25M. Filipek1.801312111372F. Balcar1.911514711113WSep 17 · 14:40M. Filipek1.831111113F. Marat1.834990
Upcoming Matches
F. Balcar
Nothing scheduled
M. Filipek
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