TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadym Kucheriavyi vs Pavlo Ostrovskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111210511––
Pavlo Ostrovskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVadym Kucheriavyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadym Kucheriavyi above · Pavlo Ostrovskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 77 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Vadym Kucheriavyi at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3254.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kucheriavyi 1243 vs Ostrovskyi 1113
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucheriavyi 80% vs Ostrovskyi 20%
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucheriavyi 70% vs Ostrovskyi 30%
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucheriavyi +1 · Ostrovskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kucheriavyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ostrovskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucheriavyi 1.727 / Ostrovskyi 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kucheriavyi)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234652
Kucheriavyi1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite45% won 27 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it63% 15 of 24
Ostrovskyi2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucheriavyiOstrovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 117 vs 5 / 1344.4%38.5%52 / 117 vs 5 / 13Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KucheriavyiKucheriavyi 1.73/Ostrovskyi 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kucheriavyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ostrovskyi won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Kucheriavyi10
WOct 3 · 09:35V. Varchenko1.8091111992V. Kucheriavyi1.91119611113LOct 3 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi1.67891171V. Mykhalchenko2.1011116113WOct 3 · 07:35O. Stopin2.005880V. Kucheriavyi1.731111113WOct 3 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi1.36581111113S. Osipov3.0011119682WSep 27 · 16:40V. Varchenko1.671111131062V. Kucheriavyi2.10871512113WSep 27 · 15:40V. Kucheriavyi1.91111173S. Osipov1.809660WSep 27 · 14:40V. Kucheriavyi2.5011117113V. Kondratenko1.50591151WSep 27 · 13:10V. Kucheriavyi1.731111711113O. Miklukha2.0041311552LSep 19 · 12:50V. Kucheriavyi1.6771040V. Varchenko2.101112113LSep 19 · 10:50V. Mykhalchenko2.201311114113V. Kucheriavyi1.6115341192
P. Ostrovskyi10
LOct 3 · 10:35V. Mykhalchenko2.75111153113P. Ostrovskyi1.4027111192LOct 3 · 09:05O. Stopin2.3861113113P. Ostrovskyi1.531151161WOct 3 · 07:05S. Osipov1.73111271172P. Ostrovskyi2.00914116113LOct 3 · 05:05V. Varchenko1.671111123P. Ostrovskyi2.1093100LOct 2 · 12:05S. Semenets1.83521111113P. Ostrovskyi1.8311119562WOct 2 · 10:35P. Ostrovskyi1.80718118113M. Khalenko1.91111681182LOct 2 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy1.831811113P. Ostrovskyi1.8316380LOct 2 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.91116129113P. Ostrovskyi1.80711101162WOct 2 · 05:35V. Stukalov1.836740P. Ostrovskyi1.831111113LSep 27 · 17:40S. Osipov2.001211113P. Ostrovskyi1.7310570
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