TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavlo Melnichuk vs Illia Fokin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012113511115611
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:17 and never touched: 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavlo Melnichuk above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 85 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Illia Fokin at 73.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Melnichuk 1–7 Illia Fokin Pavlo Melnichuk has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Fokin beat Melnichuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1773.9%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 3.0pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Fokin
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnichuk 924 vs Fokin 1023
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnichuk 80% vs Fokin 60%
Melnichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnichuk 80% vs Fokin 50%
Melnichuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnichuk +2 · Fokin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Fokin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnichuk 3.40 / Fokin 1.30
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Fokin)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228965
Melnichuk3.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Fokin1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 63 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMelnichuk1wins
AwayFokin7wins
1 of 8 to a deciderFokin leads 7–1, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnichuk33.3%1 of 3
AwayFokin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnichuk3Fokin5n = 8Fokin took 5 of 8
S2Melnichuk1Fokin7n = 8Fokin took 7 of 8
S3Melnichuk4Fokin4n = 8split evenly
S4Melnichuk0Fokin4n = 4Fokin took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricMelnichukFokinM − FBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match31.538.6−7.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnichukFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 191 vs 152 / 29755.5%51.2%106 / 191 vs 152 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FokinMelnichuk 3.40/Fokin 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 1 · 15:55P. Melnichuk4012101261I. Fokin47141210113
WAug 15 · 09:55P. Melnichuk341211113I. Fokin2810990
LAug 11 · 04:25P. Melnichuk31771161I. Fokin4111118113
LAug 10 · 17:25P. Melnichuk3811611462I. Fokin50811911113
LJul 23 · 09:55P. Melnichuk2671090I. Fokin341112113
LJul 22 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2999110I. Fokin351111133
LJun 9 · 05:25P. Melnichuk311110731I. Fokin4171211113
LJun 8 · 17:25P. Melnichuk239950I. Fokin331111113
P. Melnichuk10
WOct 1 · 18:25M. Senyk4.50611491P. Melnichuk1.1711711113WOct 1 · 17:25O. Bolnyh1.6711881162P. Melnichuk2.10511119113LOct 1 · 15:55I. Fokin1.30141210113P. Melnichuk3.4012101261WOct 1 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak1.61139941P. Melnichuk2.20111111113WOct 1 · 11:55O. Martynenko1.8012890P. Melnichuk1.911411113WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113
I. Fokin10
WOct 2 · 06:25I. Fokin1.281111133Y. Shcherbak3.5078110LOct 1 · 17:55O. Martynenko2.50911119113I. Fokin1.5011751182WOct 1 · 16:55I. Fokin1.25311118113Y. Shcherbak3.7511991182WOct 1 · 15:55I. Fokin1.30141210113P. Melnichuk3.4012101261LOct 1 · 14:25I. Fokin1.2071116592M. Senyk4.331181411113WOct 1 · 12:25I. Fokin1.251111153O. Bolnyh3.7538130LSep 24 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.6781111113I. Fokin2.10117931WSep 24 · 09:55M. Treschetka1.30911101172I. Fokin3.40111127113LSep 24 · 08:25M. Dunas1.731111113I. Fokin2.006250WSep 24 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak3.751111101042I. Fokin1.25591212113
Upcoming Matches
P. Melnichuk
I. Fokin
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.