TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Illia Fokin vs Yuriy Shcherbak 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171181311––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:22 and never touched: 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Yuriy Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 61 set 3, 13-11 · our read held Illia Fokin at 77.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 20–5 Yuriy Shcherbak Yuriy Shcherbak has won 5 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2277.5%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 0.3pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-5 in 25
Fokin
Correct
gap of 15 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1040 vs Shcherbak 890
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 60% vs Shcherbak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 60% vs Shcherbak 40%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin +1 · Shcherbak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Fokin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.285 / Shcherbak 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Fokin)-0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13229249
Fokin1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 63 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Shcherbak3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog22% won 22 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back11% 8 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFokin9wins
AwayShcherbak1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFokin85.7%6 of 7
AwayShcherbak0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fokin7Shcherbak3n = 10Fokin took 7 of 10
S2Fokin7Shcherbak3n = 10Fokin took 7 of 10
S3Fokin9Shcherbak1n = 10Fokin took 9 of 10
S4Fokin3Shcherbak2n = 5Fokin took 3 of 5
S5Fokin3Shcherbak1n = 4Fokin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFokinShcherbakF − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.333.0+7.3per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 299 vs 150 / 28451.5%52.8%154 / 299 vs 150 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FokinFokin 1.28/Shcherbak 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 06:25I. Fokin351111133Y. Shcherbak2678110
WOct 1 · 16:55I. Fokin44311118113Y. Shcherbak4811991182
WSep 24 · 06:25I. Fokin49591212113Y. Shcherbak461111101042
WSep 16 · 15:25I. Fokin48911611113Y. Shcherbak4211511962
LAug 21 · 11:55I. Fokin521110119112Y. Shcherbak48712511133
WAug 15 · 11:25I. Fokin331111113Y. Shcherbak239770
WAug 14 · 13:55I. Fokin331111113Y. Shcherbak216960
WAug 11 · 10:25I. Fokin341112113Y. Shcherbak2051050
WAug 10 · 13:25I. Fokin341211113Y. Shcherbak2610790
WJul 23 · 11:25I. Fokin4111811113Y. Shcherbak30611671
I. Fokin10
WOct 2 · 05:25P. Melnichuk3.40101151162I. Fokin1.30123115113LOct 1 · 17:55O. Martynenko2.50911119113I. Fokin1.5011751182WOct 1 · 16:55I. Fokin1.25311118113Y. Shcherbak3.7511991182WOct 1 · 15:55I. Fokin1.30141210113P. Melnichuk3.4012101261LOct 1 · 14:25I. Fokin1.2071116592M. Senyk4.331181411113WOct 1 · 12:25I. Fokin1.251111153O. Bolnyh3.7538130LSep 24 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.6781111113I. Fokin2.10117931WSep 24 · 09:55M. Treschetka1.30911101172I. Fokin3.40111127113LSep 24 · 08:25M. Dunas1.731111113I. Fokin2.006250WSep 24 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak3.751111101042I. Fokin1.25591212113
Y. Shcherbak10
WOct 2 · 04:25O. Martynenko1.836111161Y. Shcherbak1.8311313113WOct 1 · 18:55Y. Shcherbak1.171111113O. Bolnyh4.507960LOct 1 · 16:55I. Fokin1.25311118113Y. Shcherbak3.7511991182WOct 1 · 14:55O. Martynenko1.83106131142Y. Shcherbak1.831211117113LOct 1 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak1.61139941P. Melnichuk2.20111111113WOct 1 · 12:55M. Senyk6.5081080Y. Shcherbak1.101112113LSep 24 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak2.388990M. Treschetka1.531111113LSep 24 · 09:25M. Dunas1.25961112113Y. Shcherbak3.75111161072LSep 24 · 07:25V. Ivanytskyi1.57811114113Y. Shcherbak2.2511771182LSep 24 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak3.751111101042I. Fokin1.25591212113
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