TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Martynenko vs Yuriy Shcherbak 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10126111311117411
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Martynenko above · Yuriy Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 96 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Martynenko 4–7 Yuriy Shcherbak Oleh Martynenko has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martynenko 873 vs Shcherbak 873
Martynenko
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martynenko 60% vs Shcherbak 20%
Martynenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martynenko 50% vs Shcherbak 20%
Martynenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martynenko +1 · Shcherbak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shcherbak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartynenko 1.833 / Shcherbak 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shcherbak)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13223951
Martynenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Shcherbak1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartynenko3wins
AwayShcherbak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartynenko75%3 of 4
AwayShcherbak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martynenko4Shcherbak6n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S2Martynenko4Shcherbak6n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S3Martynenko6Shcherbak4n = 10Martynenko took 6 of 10
S4Martynenko2Shcherbak4n = 6Shcherbak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartynenkoShcherbakM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.636.9−5.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartynenkoShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 316 vs 147 / 27945.3%52.7%143 / 316 vs 147 / 279Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.935.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakMartynenko 1.83/Shcherbak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 10:55O. Martynenko3911512113Y. Shcherbak399111091
WAug 22 · 05:55O. Martynenko361111143Y. Shcherbak2888120
LAug 21 · 16:25O. Martynenko29116751Y. Shcherbak3961111113
WAug 18 · 08:25O. Martynenko331111113Y. Shcherbak259880
LAug 17 · 13:55O. Martynenko27461161Y. Shcherbak4011117113
LAug 15 · 07:25O. Martynenko4041171172Y. Shcherbak42113116113
LAug 14 · 14:55O. Martynenko389811101Y. Shcherbak3911115123
LJul 23 · 07:25O. Martynenko3551112612Y. Shcherbak481151011113
LJul 22 · 14:55O. Martynenko195860Y. Shcherbak331111113
LJul 16 · 09:55O. Martynenko2012260Y. Shcherbak361411113
O. Martynenko10
WOct 1 · 13:25O. Martynenko1.67121111123O. Bolnyh2.101468101LOct 1 · 11:55O. Martynenko1.8012890P. Melnichuk1.911411113WSep 22 · 10:55O. Martynenko1.7311512113Y. Shcherbak2.009111091LSep 22 · 08:55M. Senyk7.001011115113O. Martynenko1.0812621172WSep 22 · 07:55O. Martynenko1.44131310113B. Pyrtyk2.6311111291WSep 22 · 06:55R. Skoropad2.504740O. Martynenko1.501111113WSep 22 · 05:25O. Martynenko1.7311115113V. Sydorchuk2.00691141LAug 22 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.3351111792B. Pyrtyk3.25114711113LAug 22 · 08:55O. Martynenko1.7311117732A. Nikolenko2.00751111113LAug 22 · 07:25O. Martynenko1.4410970V. Sydorchuk2.631211113
Y. Shcherbak10
LOct 1 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak1.61139941P. Melnichuk2.20111111113WOct 1 · 12:55M. Senyk6.5081080Y. Shcherbak1.101112113LSep 24 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak2.388990M. Treschetka1.531111113LSep 24 · 09:25M. Dunas1.25961112113Y. Shcherbak3.75111161072LSep 24 · 07:25V. Ivanytskyi1.57811114113Y. Shcherbak2.2511771182LSep 24 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak3.751111101042I. Fokin1.25591212113LSep 24 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.2561111113Y. Shcherbak3.75117481LSep 22 · 10:55O. Martynenko1.7311512113Y. Shcherbak2.009111091WSep 22 · 09:55B. Pyrtyk2.20107100Y. Shcherbak1.611211123LSep 22 · 08:25R. Skoropad2.501112113Y. Shcherbak1.5081060
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