TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Karl Zimmermann vs Sven Happek 3-0 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112117114––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:53 and never touched: 83.0% is still 83.0%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
83.0%
83.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Sven Happek below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 46 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Karl Zimmermann at 83.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Karl Zimmermann 3–0 Sven Happek Sven Happek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5383.0%Our read88.9%to break even at 1.125
short by 5.9pp88.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.125 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Zimmermann
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zimmermann 1640 vs Happek 1291
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 350 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zimmermann 40% vs Happek 20%
Zimmermann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zimmermann 50% vs Happek 30%
Zimmermann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zimmermann -2 · Happek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Zimmermann) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (40%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZimmermann 1.125 / Happek 5.50
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Zimmermann)-5.9pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13225947
Zimmermann1.13
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite86% won 19 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Happek5.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog7% won 4 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZimmermann3wins
AwayHappek0wins
Zimmermann leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZimmermann100%3 of 3
AwayHappekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zimmermann3Happek0n = 3Zimmermann took 3 of 3
S2Zimmermann3Happek0n = 3Zimmermann took 3 of 3
S3Zimmermann3Happek0n = 3Zimmermann took 3 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home3100%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricZimmermannHappekZ − HBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match33.717.7+16.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZimmermannHappekBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 66 vs 46 / 17156.1%26.9%37 / 66 vs 46 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.131.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannZimmermann 1.13/Happek 5.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 21 · 17:30K. Zimmermann351111133S. Happek2155110
WAug 6 · 12:00K. Zimmermann331111113S. Happek185940
WJul 27 · 08:30K. Zimmermann331111113S. Happek146440
K. Zimmermann10
LOct 5 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.4651111872J. Loffler2.56117911113LOct 5 · 10:30K. Zimmermann2.1071161172C. Besnier1.67119118113LOct 5 · 08:30K. Zimmermann2.751E. Mendes1.403WOct 5 · 06:30K. Zimmermann1.3311911113P. Koloidenko3.25511291WSep 22 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.155370LSep 22 · 09:15O. Kosolosky—1111113K. Zimmermann—7510WSep 22 · 07:00R. Turrini1.1149100K. Zimmermann6.001111123WSep 21 · 17:30S. Happek3.2555110K. Zimmermann1.331111133LSep 21 · 14:30S. Almeida2.05116115113K. Zimmermann1.7061151162WSep 21 · 13:00C. Schmitt5.00651161K. Zimmermann1.1411119113
S. Happek10
LOct 5 · 16:00E. Mendes1.111111123S. Happek6.0066100LOct 5 · 12:00S. Happek9.0010660M. Aguirre1.041211113WOct 5 · 09:30S. Happek1.2211911113O. Naplokov4.00711281LOct 5 · 08:00S. Happek—11690J. Loffler—1311113LSep 29 · 07:30I. Bertrand1.011111113S. Happek15.004890LSep 28 · 17:30S. Happek1.30711691A. Moreno3.4011911113WSep 28 · 16:00O. Naplokov3.758690S. Happek1.251111113LSep 28 · 14:00R. Turrini1.011111113S. Happek12.005450LSep 28 · 12:00S. Happek4.50119741R. Albuquerque1.1791111113LSep 21 · 17:30S. Happek3.2555110K. Zimmermann1.331111133
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