Karl Zimmermann vs Celian Besnier 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TT

Played Oct 5Finished

Karl Zimmermann

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

711119611118711

Celian Besnier

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Celian Besnier to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Celian Besnier below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 7-11

Point 92 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Celian Besnier at 55.8%

92 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 10:28

55.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 4.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Besnier

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Form (L5)

Zimmermann 80% vs Besnier 60%

Zimmermann

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Zimmermann 60% vs Besnier 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Zimmermann +2 · Besnier +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Besnier) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Zimmermann form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZimmermann 2.10 / Besnier 1.666

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Besnier)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Challenger Series TT · #13225954

Zimmermann2.10

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog27% won 7 of 26

Down 0–1, comes back12% 2 of 17

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11

Besnier1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricZimmermannBesnierBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 64 vs 5 / 1057.8%50%37 / 64 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

Forecastthe model predicts this market

Match Winner

Besnier

Zimmermann 2.10/Besnier 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

55.8%

Besnier · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Besnier won

Handicap · Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

K. Zimmermann10