TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Sven Happek vs Alex Moreno 1-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611911––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched — 71.9% is still 71.9%
Graded at full timeSven Happek to win
71.9%
71.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSven Happek above · Alex Moreno below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Sven Happek at 71.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 2–3 Alex Moreno Sven Happek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Happek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Happek 1290 vs Moreno 1148
Happek
Wrong
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 40% vs Moreno 20%
Happek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 30% vs Moreno 10%
Happek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek +1 · Moreno -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Happek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Happek form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 1.30 / Moreno 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Happek)-0.4pp
Challenger Series TT · #13207948
Happek1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite44% won 8 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it60% 3 of 5
Moreno3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog12% won 8 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHappek2wins
AwayMoreno3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMoreno leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHappek66.7%2 of 3
AwayMorenon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Happek3Moreno2n = 5Happek took 3 of 5
S2Happek2Moreno3n = 5Moreno took 3 of 5
S3Happek1Moreno4n = 5Moreno took 4 of 5
S4Happek2Moreno1n = 3Happek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricHappekMorenoH − MBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match34.042.4−8.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekMorenoBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 166 vs 19 / 13727.1%13.9%45 / 166 vs 19 / 137Avg sets wonper match1.30.9per matchAvg pointsper match31.528.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HappekHappek 1.30/Moreno 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.9%
Happek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moreno won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 21 · 14:00S. Happek331111113A. Moreno247980
LJul 17 · 08:30S. Happek4761461382A. Moreno5611121111113
LMay 21 · 12:00S. Happek50410A. Moreno331111113
LMar 9 · 08:30S. Happek321156101A. Moreno4281111123
WFeb 10 · 07:30S. Happek53138414143A. Moreno5711111112122
S. Happek10
WSep 28 · 16:00O. Naplokov3.758690S. Happek1.251111113LSep 28 · 14:00R. Turrini1.011111113S. Happek12.005450LSep 28 · 12:00S. Happek4.50119741R. Albuquerque1.1791111113WSep 28 · 09:30S. Happek1.401112113K. Waltl2.7571070LSep 28 · 08:00S. Happek—13111181M. Stefanidis—15713113LSep 22 · 07:30S. Almeida1.7011118113S. Happek2.05481131LSep 21 · 17:30S. Happek3.2555110K. Zimmermann1.331111133LSep 21 · 16:00O. Kosolosky1.1411118113S. Happek5.00851131WSep 21 · 14:00A. Moreno2.257980S. Happek1.571111113LSep 21 · 12:00S. Happek15.00541591R. Turrini1.01111113113
A. Moreno10
LSep 28 · 14:30I. Bertrand1.0111115113A. Moreno15.00541161WSep 28 · 13:00K. Waltl1.73146571A. Moreno2.00121111113LSep 28 · 11:00O. Naplokov1.3311119123A. Moreno3.258811101LSep 28 · 10:00M. Stefanidis1.4281111113A. Moreno2.60115691LSep 28 · 06:30R. Turrini1.011111113A. Moreno15.005280LSep 22 · 08:00A. Moreno10.50510120R. Turrini1.021112143LSep 21 · 17:00A. Moreno2.105490C. Schmitt1.671111113LSep 21 · 15:00A. Moreno3.771171091M. Stefanidis1.2391112113LSep 21 · 14:00A. Moreno2.257980S. Happek1.571111113LSep 21 · 10:30A. Moreno—79120S. Almeida—1111143
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