Kento Waltl vs Alex Moreno 1-3 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TT

Played Sep 28Finished

Kento Waltl

Home

1.73

At publish

Lost last 12

Form at publish

0–10Last 10Lost last 12

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1412611511711––

Alex Moreno

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 11

Form at publish

0–10Last 10Lost last 11

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Kento Waltl to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingKento Waltl above · Alex Moreno below

Set 1 · 14-12

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 7-11

Point 77 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Kento Waltl at 54.0%

77 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:58

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Waltl

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Waltl 1070 vs Moreno 1133

Moreno

Correct

both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Waltl 0% vs Moreno 0%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Waltl 0% vs Moreno 0%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Waltl -12 · Moreno -11

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Waltl) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Moreno form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsWaltl 1.73 / Moreno 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Waltl)+0.3pp

Challenger Series TT · #13207952

Waltl1.73

0%won 0 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 12

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Moreno2.00

0%won 0 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 11

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog12% won 8 of 67

Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 49

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricWaltlMorenoBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 17 vs 18 / 13517.7%13.3%3 / 17 vs 18 / 135Avg sets wonper match0.90.9per matchAvg pointsper match28.728.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Waltl

Waltl 1.73/Moreno 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Waltl · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Moreno won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

K. Waltl10