TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Sven Happek vs Oleksii Naplokov 3-1 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911112118––
Oleksii Naplokov
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeSven Happek to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSven Happek above · Oleksii Naplokov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Sven Happek at 77.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 5–0 Oleksii Naplokov Oleksii Naplokov has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2977.8%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 4.0pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Happek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Happek
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Happek 1265 vs Naplokov 1488
Naplokov
Wrong
both rated, 223 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 20% vs Naplokov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 20% vs Naplokov 50%
Naplokov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek -3 · Naplokov -1
Happek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Happek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Happek form (20%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 1.222 / Naplokov 4.00
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Happek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13246663
Happek1.22
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 10 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Naplokov4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHappek5wins
AwayNaplokov0wins
Happek leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHappek100%5 of 5
AwayNaplokovn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Happek5Naplokov0n = 5Happek took 5 of 5
S2Happek4Naplokov1n = 5Happek took 4 of 5
S3Happek5Naplokov0n = 5Happek took 5 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home480%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHappekNaplokovH − NBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match35.624.2+11.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekNaplokovBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 169 vs 26 / 6026.6%43.3%45 / 169 vs 26 / 60Avg sets wonper match1.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match31.430.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HappekHappek 1.22/Naplokov 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Happek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Happek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 28 · 16:00S. Happek331111113O. Naplokov238690
WFeb 9 · 16:00S. Happek351113113O. Naplokov2561180
WNov 24 · 12:00S. Happek331111113O. Naplokov188550
WJul 31 · 17:00S. Happek331111113O. Naplokov208480
WJul 21 · 17:30S. Happek4413911113O. Naplokov351111761
S. Happek10
LOct 5 · 08:00S. Happek—11690J. Loffler—1311113LSep 29 · 07:30I. Bertrand1.011111113S. Happek15.004890LSep 28 · 17:30S. Happek1.30711691A. Moreno3.4011911113WSep 28 · 16:00O. Naplokov3.758690S. Happek1.251111113LSep 28 · 14:00R. Turrini1.011111113S. Happek12.005450LSep 28 · 12:00S. Happek4.50119741R. Albuquerque1.1791111113WSep 28 · 09:30S. Happek1.401112113K. Waltl2.7571070LSep 28 · 08:00S. Happek—13111181M. Stefanidis—15713113LSep 22 · 07:30S. Almeida1.7011118113S. Happek2.05481131LSep 21 · 17:30S. Happek3.2555110K. Zimmermann1.331111133
O. Naplokov10
LOct 5 · 07:30C. Besnier—111111113O. Naplokov—851381WSep 29 · 08:30O. Naplokov1.1411117113K. Waltl5.00691181LSep 29 · 06:30O. Naplokov—721171M. Stefanidis—11114113LSep 28 · 16:00O. Naplokov3.758690S. Happek1.251111113LSep 28 · 12:30O. Naplokov12.0010570I. Bertrand1.011211113WSep 28 · 11:00O. Naplokov1.3311119123A. Moreno3.258811101LSep 28 · 08:30R. Turrini1.071111113O. Naplokov7.506730WSep 28 · 07:00O. Naplokov4.3311127113R. Albuquerque1.205101181WSep 25 · 08:00M. Scharrer1.503690O. Naplokov2.501111113WSep 25 · 07:00O. Naplokov2.001311113N. Kizakisz1.7111470
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