TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Enio Mendes vs Sven Happek 3-0 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161161210––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched: 87.2% is still 87.2%
Graded at full timeEnio Mendes to win
87.2%
87.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEnio Mendes above · Sven Happek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 56 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Enio Mendes at 87.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Enio Mendes 2–1 Sven Happek Sven Happek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5787.2%Our read90.0%to break even at 1.111
short by 2.8pp90.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.111 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Mendes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mendes 1857 vs Happek 1286
Mendes
Correct
both rated, 571 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mendes 60% vs Happek 20%
Mendes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mendes 70% vs Happek 30%
Mendes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mendes +3 · Happek -2
Mendes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% · Strong (leans Mendes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mendes form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMendes 1.111 / Happek 6.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Mendes)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13225943
Mendes1.11
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite77% won 26 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Happek6.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog7% won 4 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMendes2wins
AwayHappek1wins
Mendes leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mendes2Happek1n = 3Mendes took 2 of 3
S2Mendes3Happek0n = 3Mendes took 3 of 3
S3Mendes2Happek1n = 3Mendes took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMendesHappekM − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match33.724.7+9.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMendesHappekBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 70 vs 46 / 17271.4%26.7%50 / 70 vs 46 / 172Avg sets wonper match2.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.831.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MendesMendes 1.11/Happek 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.2%
Mendes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mendes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 14 · 09:00E. Mendes33711691S. Happek3911611113
WJul 6 · 11:30E. Mendes331111113S. Happek185580
WJun 8 · 17:30E. Mendes351113113S. Happek1741120
E. Mendes10
WOct 5 · 12:30E. Mendes1.57111210113C. Besnier2.257101281WOct 5 · 11:00E. Mendes1.051111113P. Koloidenko8.506650WOct 5 · 08:30K. Zimmermann2.751E. Mendes1.403LOct 5 · 07:00E. Mendes3.701111851M. Aguirre1.2513911113LSep 18 · 10:58D. Rinderer1.8371111113E. Mendes1.83119671WSep 18 · 09:43E. Mendes1.53117129113L. Qiu2.38911101152WSep 18 · 08:30E. Mendes1.071111113J. Harencak7.508670WSep 18 · 06:30E. Mendes1.50811117113L. Qiu2.5011491152WSep 17 · 16:00E. Mendes—81111113J. Loffler—115871LSep 17 · 12:30E. Mendes1.1055111192D. Zech6.50111169113
S. Happek10
LOct 5 · 14:00K. Zimmermann1.131111113S. Happek5.502740LOct 5 · 12:00S. Happek9.0010660M. Aguirre1.041211113WOct 5 · 09:30S. Happek1.2211911113O. Naplokov4.00711281LOct 5 · 08:00S. Happek—11690J. Loffler—1311113LSep 29 · 07:30I. Bertrand1.011111113S. Happek15.004890LSep 28 · 17:30S. Happek1.30711691A. Moreno3.4011911113WSep 28 · 16:00O. Naplokov3.758690S. Happek1.251111113LSep 28 · 14:00R. Turrini1.011111113S. Happek12.005450LSep 28 · 12:00S. Happek4.50119741R. Albuquerque1.1791111113WSep 28 · 09:30S. Happek1.401112113K. Waltl2.7571070
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