Sven Happek vs Marcelo Aguirre 0-3 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TT

Played Oct 5Finished

Sven Happek

Home

9.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

1012611611––––

Marcelo Aguirre

Away

1.04

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched: 89.6% is still 89.6%

Graded at full time

Marcelo Aguirre to win

89.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingSven Happek above · Marcelo Aguirre below

Set 1 · 10-12

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 6-11

Point 56 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Marcelo Aguirre at 89.6%

56 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:52

89.6%Our read96.2%to break even at 1.04

short by 6.6pp

96.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.04 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.04 (90%)

Aguirre

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Happek 1291 vs Aguirre 2107

Aguirre

Correct

both rated, 816 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Happek 40% vs Aguirre 60%

Aguirre

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Happek 30% vs Aguirre 80%

Aguirre

Correct

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Happek +1 · Aguirre -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 90% · Strong (leans Aguirre) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Aguirre form (60%) is below what odds imply (96%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHappek 9.00 / Aguirre 1.04

Signal prob.10% / 90%

Edge (Aguirre)-6.6pp (anti-value)

Challenger Series TT · #13245242

Happek9.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog7% won 4 of 55

Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 46

Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39

Aguirre1.04

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite93% won 13 of 14

Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8

Up 1–0, closes it92% 11 of 12

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricHappekAguirreBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 170 vs 15 / 1627.1%93.8%46 / 170 vs 15 / 16Avg sets wonper match1.32.9per matchAvg pointsper match31.538.8per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Aguirre

Happek 9.00/Aguirre 1.04

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

89.6%

Aguirre · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Aguirre won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

S. Happek10