TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Enio Mendes vs Celian Besnier 3-1 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 5Finished
Enio Mendes
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11712101012118––
Celian Besnier
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEnio Mendes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEnio Mendes above · Celian Besnier below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Enio Mendes at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Enio Mendes 1–0 Celian Besnier Celian Besnier has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2654.0%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 9.7pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mendes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Mendes 60% vs Besnier 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mendes 70% vs Besnier 50%
Mendes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mendes +2 · Besnier +3
Besnier
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mendes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Besnier form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMendes 1.571 / Besnier 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mendes)-9.7pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13225950
Mendes1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite77% won 26 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Besnier2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMendes1wins
AwayBesnier0wins
Mendes leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMendesBesnierM − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.037.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMendesBesnierBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 70 vs 5 / 1071.4%50%50 / 70 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.51.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MendesMendes 1.57/Besnier 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mendes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mendes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 5 · 12:30E. Mendes44111210113C. Besnier377101281
E. Mendes10
WOct 5 · 11:00E. Mendes1.051111113P. Koloidenko8.506650WOct 5 · 08:30K. Zimmermann2.751E. Mendes1.403LOct 5 · 07:00E. Mendes3.701111851M. Aguirre1.2513911113LSep 18 · 10:58D. Rinderer1.8371111113E. Mendes1.83119671WSep 18 · 09:43E. Mendes1.53117129113L. Qiu2.38911101152WSep 18 · 08:30E. Mendes1.071111113J. Harencak7.508670WSep 18 · 06:30E. Mendes1.50811117113L. Qiu2.5011491152WSep 17 · 16:00E. Mendes—81111113J. Loffler—115871LSep 17 · 12:30E. Mendes1.1055111192D. Zech6.50111169113WSep 17 · 11:00E. Mendes1.5311611113M. Scharrer2.38811651
C. Besnier10
WOct 5 · 10:30K. Zimmermann2.1071161172C. Besnier1.67119118113WOct 5 · 09:00C. Besnier4.33118811113M. Aguirre1.2021111792WOct 5 · 07:30C. Besnier—111111113O. Naplokov—851381LNov 6 · 10:05C. Besnier1.338890Y. Rebetez3.251111113LNov 5 · 20:05B. Oehme1.301113113C. Besnier3.4071140WNov 5 · 12:25R. Chambet-Weil3.757780C. Besnier1.251111113LJun 24 · 17:21C. Besnier2.50123361E. Ranefur1.50101111113LJun 24 · 16:14C. Besnier2.50911621J. Zelinka1.5011711113WJun 24 · 15:30C. Besnier1.831112113O. Tymofieiev1.8391040LJun 23 · 17:11D. Prokopcov1.83511911113C. Besnier1.8311611782
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