TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Stefek vs Jiri Moravek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511117118811611
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Moravek to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Jiri Moravek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jiri Moravek at 63.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 3–7 Jiri Moravek Martin Stefek has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Moravek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Moravek
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1379 vs Moravek 1419
Moravek
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Moravek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Moravek 50%
Moravek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -2 · Moravek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Moravek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.35 / Moravek 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Moravek)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13209664
Stefek2.35
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 182 of 425
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 137
Moravek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 23 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwayMoravek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMoravek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek50%2 of 4
AwayMoravek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Moravek6n = 10Moravek took 6 of 10
S2Stefek7Moravek3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S3Stefek2Moravek8n = 10Moravek took 8 of 10
S4Stefek3Moravek6n = 9Moravek took 6 of 9
S5Stefek1Moravek2n = 3Moravek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekMoravekS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.239.9−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekMoravekBasisWin rate · lifetime609 / 1269 vs 88 / 17548%50.3%609 / 1269 vs 88 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravekStefek 2.35/Moravek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63%
Moravek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moravek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 07:00M. Stefek4151111862J. Moravek48117811113
LSep 21 · 20:30M. Stefek26411471J. Moravek4211911113
LAug 30 · 19:30M. Stefek227690J. Moravek331111113
WAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek491011611113J. Moravek3812311662
WAug 27 · 18:00M. Stefek4011117113J. Moravek31791141
WMay 22 · 18:00M. Stefek4211119113J. Moravek30821191
LMay 17 · 16:59M. Stefek32711681J. Moravek3511211113
LMay 17 · 14:30M. Stefek30118381J. Moravek4181111113
LMay 12 · 20:59M. Stefek401112981J. Moravek45131011113
LMay 12 · 20:30M. Stefek5016911952J. Moravek561411911113
M. Stefek10
LSep 28 · 06:00T. Nohejl1.4411128113M. Stefek2.637101121LSep 27 · 02:59M. Stefek2.75711121182V. Dolezal1.40119146113WSep 27 · 01:30M. Stefek2.101612113J. Didi1.67141070LSep 27 · 00:30V. Dolezal1.531011811113M. Stefek2.3812811842WSep 26 · 23:30R. Urban1.402380M. Stefek2.751111113LSep 26 · 22:30M. Stefek2.258620D. Barton1.571111113LSep 26 · 21:09M. Stefek1.837150V. Kosar1.831111113LSep 26 · 20:00J. Didi1.731111119113M. Stefek2.0038131132WSep 26 · 19:00V. Kosar1.73461181M. Stefek2.0011118113LSep 26 · 18:30M. Stefek2.633390M. Fisera1.441111113
J. Moravek10
LSep 28 · 08:00T. Nohejl1.8011613123J. Moravek1.9181111101LSep 28 · 06:28J. Moravek1.835460A. Svoboda1.831111113WSep 23 · 20:58V. Kosar1.678690J. Moravek2.101111113LSep 23 · 20:30V. Kosar2.101111113J. Moravek1.672780WSep 23 · 19:30J. Moravek2.50119118123R. Bartunek1.50911711102LSep 23 · 18:30J. Steffan1.571211113J. Moravek2.2510770LSep 21 · 21:30R. Bartunek1.671111113J. Moravek2.087980WSep 21 · 20:30J. Moravek1.5711911113M. Stefek2.25411471LSep 21 · 19:00J. Moravek2.257911101R. Bartunek1.5711116123WSep 21 · 18:00V. Nohejl1.44111211792J. Moravek2.63814811113
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