TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evgeniy Pismenniy vs Roman Cherevko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11611912141113811
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 106 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 68.9%
106 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 69–166 Roman Cherevko Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 69 of their 235 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
69-166 in 235
Cherevko
Correct
gap of 97 in 235, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1537 vs Cherevko 1751
Cherevko
Correct
both rated, 214 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 60% vs Cherevko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 40% vs Cherevko 80%
Cherevko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy -1 · Cherevko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Cherevko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 2.63 / Cherevko 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Cherevko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13191391
Pismenniy2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog24% won 60 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back7% 11 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Cherevko1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 97 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it86% 65 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy2wins
AwayCherevko8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy0%0 of 4
AwayCherevko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy4Cherevko6n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S2Pismenniy7Cherevko3n = 10Pismenniy took 7 of 10
S3Pismenniy4Cherevko6n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S4Pismenniy2Cherevko8n = 10Cherevko took 8 of 10
S5Pismenniy1Cherevko5n = 6Cherevko took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyCherevkoP − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.647.9−5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 693 vs 379 / 72929.6%52%205 / 693 vs 379 / 729Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoPismenniy 2.63/Cherevko 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 19 · 15:55E. Pismenniy51151111592R. Cherevko56178911113
LSep 19 · 02:25E. Pismenniy48811121072R. Cherevko511171012113
LSep 13 · 19:55E. Pismenniy351181061R. Cherevko4281112113
LSep 12 · 16:25E. Pismenniy3911711372R. Cherevko50811911113
LSep 12 · 02:25E. Pismenniy368121151R. Cherevko4411148113
WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy43511511113R. Cherevko3911611652
LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy33711691R. Cherevko3811511113
LSep 4 · 21:55E. Pismenniy4212113792R. Cherevko521091111113
LAug 29 · 16:55E. Pismenniy56111289162R. Cherevko599101111183
E. Pismenniy10
WSep 26 · 03:25R. Reznychenko2.208670E. Pismenniy1.611111113LSep 26 · 01:25E. Pismenniy6.501181191A. Tuzhylin1.1051113113WSep 25 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.5011411113V. Melnik1.50711371WSep 25 · 21:55E. Pismenniy3.0011711123Y. Masko1.368116101WSep 20 · 19:55Y. Masko1.536118141E. Pismenniy2.3811811163LSep 20 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.11511713113E. Pismenniy6.00116111172LSep 20 · 17:25S. Hohenko1.3691111113E. Pismenniy3.00116461LSep 20 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.009111113243E. Pismenniy1.73118715222LSep 19 · 19:55E. Pismenniy2.389890Y. Masko1.531111113LSep 19 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.111111113E. Pismenniy6.007650
R. Cherevko10
WSep 26 · 00:25R. Reznychenko2.1091170R. Cherevko1.671113113WSep 25 · 23:25R. Cherevko2.501711113A. Tuzhylin1.5015960LSep 25 · 22:25V. Melnik1.8315811123R. Cherevko1.8313116101LSep 20 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.757890A. Tuzhylin1.401111113WSep 20 · 18:25S. Hohenko1.833850R. Cherevko1.831111113WSep 20 · 16:25R. Reznychenko2.25811712122R. Cherevko1.571191110143WSep 20 · 14:25Y. Masko1.501113951R. Cherevko2.508151183WSep 19 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.5078100R. Cherevko2.501111123WSep 19 · 18:25R. Cherevko2.00913119113S. Hohenko1.73111161132WSep 19 · 17:25R. Cherevko2.101613113Y. Masko1.67141190
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