TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Reznychenko vs Roman Cherevko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412511116108––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Reznychenko above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-8
Point 77 set 4, 10-8 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 59.4%
77 points played in total.
H2H Roman Reznychenko 107–134 Roman Cherevko Roman Reznychenko has won 107 of their 241 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:39What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
107-134 in 241
Cherevko
Wrong
gap of 27 in 241, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reznychenko 1501 vs Cherevko 1745
Cherevko
Wrong
both rated, 244 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reznychenko 0% vs Cherevko 60%
Cherevko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reznychenko 30% vs Cherevko 70%
Cherevko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Reznychenko -5 · Cherevko -1
Reznychenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cherevko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReznychenko 2.00 / Cherevko 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Cherevko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13196401
Reznychenko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog32% won 94 of 296
Down 0–1, comes back13% 23 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Cherevko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 99 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it86% 66 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReznychenko3wins
AwayCherevko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReznychenko50%2 of 4
AwayCherevko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reznychenko4Cherevko6n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S2Reznychenko4Cherevko6n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S3Reznychenko3Cherevko7n = 10Cherevko took 7 of 10
S4Reznychenko4Cherevko4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricReznychenkoCherevkoR − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.942.7−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReznychenkoCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 706 vs 380 / 73132.4%52%229 / 706 vs 380 / 731Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoReznychenko 2.00/Cherevko 1.73
Hit
What we said
57.3%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 26 · 00:25R. Reznychenko2791170R. Cherevko351113113
LSep 20 · 16:25R. Reznychenko50811712122R. Cherevko551191110143
LSep 18 · 23:25R. Reznychenko4011711111R. Cherevko4581113133
LSep 13 · 13:25R. Reznychenko34471581R. Cherevko46111113113
LSep 11 · 21:55R. Reznychenko4912146982R. Cherevko5510121111113
WSep 6 · 18:55R. Reznychenko4111712113R. Cherevko346111071
LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko26511371R. Cherevko4011711113
LSep 5 · 04:25R. Reznychenko2310850R. Cherevko341211113
WAug 29 · 20:25R. Reznychenko4271112123R. Cherevko4011910101
R. Reznychenko10
WSep 26 · 20:25R. Reznychenko1.91111411113E. Pismenniy1.806121381WSep 26 · 18:25V. Melnik1.4051011111R. Reznychenko2.7511128133LSep 26 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.1312112R. Reznychenko5.501090LSep 26 · 03:25R. Reznychenko2.208670E. Pismenniy1.611111113LSep 26 · 01:55R. Reznychenko2.75671251V. Melnik1.40111110113LSep 26 · 00:25R. Reznychenko2.1091170R. Cherevko1.671113113LSep 25 · 22:55R. Reznychenko3.25881181Y. Masko1.3311118113LSep 25 · 21:25R. Reznychenko5.509480A. Tuzhylin1.131111113WSep 20 · 19:24R. Reznychenko3.50111412113S. Hohenko1.287121471WSep 20 · 17:55R. Reznychenko3.00311711113Y. Masko1.3611411382
R. Cherevko10
WSep 26 · 19:55Y. Masko1.501091131R. Cherevko2.5012119113WSep 26 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63115831R. Cherevko1.4471111113LSep 26 · 17:25V. Melnik1.9191411113R. Cherevko1.801112791LSep 26 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.4011612113R. Cherevko2.759111091LSep 26 · 04:25R. Cherevko2.50830Y. Masko1.501131WSep 26 · 02:25E. Pismenniy2.631111121182R. Cherevko1.44691413113WSep 26 · 00:25R. Reznychenko2.1091170R. Cherevko1.671113113WSep 25 · 23:25R. Cherevko2.501711113A. Tuzhylin1.5015960LSep 25 · 22:25V. Melnik1.8315811123R. Cherevko1.8313116101LSep 20 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.757890A. Tuzhylin1.401111113
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