TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Reznychenko vs Evgeniy Pismenniy 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11614121113118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:35 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeEvgeniy Pismenniy to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Reznychenko above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 86 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Evgeniy Pismenniy at 58.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Roman Reznychenko 103–126 Evgeniy Pismenniy Roman Reznychenko has won 103 of their 229 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pismenniy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
103-126 in 229
Pismenniy
Wrong
gap of 23 in 229, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reznychenko 1596 vs Pismenniy 1485
Reznychenko
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reznychenko 40% vs Pismenniy 20%
Reznychenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reznychenko 40% vs Pismenniy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reznychenko +2 · Pismenniy -4
Pismenniy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pismenniy) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReznychenko 1.91 / Pismenniy 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pismenniy)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13197442
Reznychenko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 94 of 296
Down 0–1, comes back13% 23 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Pismenniy1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 37 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it76% 29 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReznychenko3wins
AwayPismenniy7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPismenniy leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReznychenko20%1 of 5
AwayPismenniy60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reznychenko5Pismenniy5n = 10split evenly
S2Reznychenko4Pismenniy6n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S3Reznychenko2Pismenniy8n = 10Pismenniy took 8 of 10
S4Reznychenko1Pismenniy7n = 8Pismenniy took 7 of 8
S5Reznychenko3Pismenniy1n = 4Reznychenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricReznychenkoPismenniyR − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.944.9−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReznychenkoPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 708 vs 206 / 69932.6%29.5%231 / 708 vs 206 / 699Avg sets wonper match1.51.6per matchAvg pointsper match33.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PismenniyReznychenko 1.91/Pismenniy 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Pismenniy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 03:25R. Reznychenko218670E. Pismenniy331111113
WSep 20 · 13:25R. Reznychenko689111113243E. Pismenniy63118715222
LSep 19 · 16:55R. Reznychenko34116981E. Pismenniy4291111113
LSep 19 · 01:25R. Reznychenko24611431E. Pismenniy45111112113
LSep 12 · 13:25R. Reznychenko4511148572E. Pismenniy549121111113
LSep 12 · 04:25R. Reznychenko361110691E. Pismenniy4391211113
LSep 6 · 19:55R. Reznychenko217950E. Pismenniy331111113
WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko531111910123E. Pismenniy51991112102
LSep 5 · 02:25R. Reznychenko26114651E. Pismenniy4181111113
WAug 29 · 14:25R. Reznychenko51911911113E. Pismenniy4411811862
R. Reznychenko10
WSep 26 · 18:25V. Melnik1.4051011111R. Reznychenko2.7511128133LSep 26 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.1312112R. Reznychenko5.501090WSep 26 · 15:25R. Reznychenko2.0014511103R. Cherevko1.731211681LSep 26 · 03:25R. Reznychenko2.208670E. Pismenniy1.611111113LSep 26 · 01:55R. Reznychenko2.75671251V. Melnik1.40111110113LSep 26 · 00:25R. Reznychenko2.1091170R. Cherevko1.671113113LSep 25 · 22:55R. Reznychenko3.25881181Y. Masko1.3311118113LSep 25 · 21:25R. Reznychenko5.509480A. Tuzhylin1.131111113WSep 20 · 19:24R. Reznychenko3.50111412113S. Hohenko1.287121471WSep 20 · 17:55R. Reznychenko3.00311711113Y. Masko1.3611411382
E. Pismenniy10
LSep 26 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63115831R. Cherevko1.4471111113LSep 26 · 16:55Y. Masko1.361311113E. Pismenniy3.0011550LSep 26 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111111113E. Pismenniy6.009820LSep 26 · 13:55V. Melnik1.44111110113E. Pismenniy2.63981261WSep 26 · 03:25R. Reznychenko2.208670E. Pismenniy1.611111113LSep 26 · 02:25E. Pismenniy2.631111121182R. Cherevko1.44691413113LSep 26 · 01:25E. Pismenniy6.501181191A. Tuzhylin1.1051113113WSep 25 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.5011411113V. Melnik1.50711371WSep 25 · 21:55E. Pismenniy3.0011711123Y. Masko1.368116101WSep 20 · 19:55Y. Masko1.536118141E. Pismenniy2.3811811163
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