TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valeriy Melnik vs Evgeniy Pismenniy 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191181012116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 65.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 142–86 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 86 of their 228 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
142-86 in 228
Melnik
Correct
gap of 56 in 228, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1714 vs Pismenniy 1546
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Pismenniy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 70% vs Pismenniy 40%
Melnik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Pismenniy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.44 / Pismenniy 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Melnik)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13196942
Melnik1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 123 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it100% 67 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it85% 92 of 108
Pismenniy2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog24% won 62 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back7% 11 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik6wins
AwayPismenniy4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik100%3 of 3
AwayPismenniy57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik3Pismenniy7n = 10Pismenniy took 7 of 10
S2Melnik4Pismenniy6n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S3Melnik6Pismenniy4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S4Melnik5Pismenniy2n = 7Melnik took 5 of 7
S5Melnik3Pismenniy1n = 4Melnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikPismenniyM − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.438.40.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 678 vs 206 / 69555.9%29.6%379 / 678 vs 206 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.44/Pismenniy 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 23:55V. Melnik28711371E. Pismenniy3711411113
WSep 13 · 15:55V. Melnik41531111113E. Pismenniy4611118792
WSep 12 · 19:25V. Melnik49115119133E. Pismenniy49711911112
LSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik43134111142E. Pismenniy51151159113
LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik2410860E. Pismenniy341211113
WSep 4 · 23:55V. Melnik4071111113E. Pismenniy25115631
LAug 29 · 15:55V. Melnik30911100E. Pismenniy361113123
WAug 29 · 00:55V. Melnik56991212143E. Pismenniy5411111010122
WAug 23 · 15:55V. Melnik331111113E. Pismenniy227780
WAug 22 · 13:55V. Melnik4011117113E. Pismenniy30651181
V. Melnik10
LSep 26 · 15:55V. Melnik2.00911881Y. Masko1.7311911113LSep 26 · 03:55V. Melnik2.388111161A. Tuzhylin1.5311137113WSep 26 · 01:55R. Reznychenko2.75671251V. Melnik1.40111110113WSep 26 · 00:55V. Melnik1.731111123Y. Masko2.0078100LSep 25 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.5011411113V. Melnik1.50711371WSep 25 · 22:25V. Melnik1.8315811123R. Cherevko1.8313116101WSep 13 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.00104100V. Melnik1.361211123WSep 13 · 18:25V. Melnik2.101111113A. Tuzhylin1.675880WSep 13 · 17:25V. Melnik1.91951111113R. Cherevko1.8011117762WSep 13 · 15:55V. Melnik1.50531111113E. Pismenniy2.5011118792
E. Pismenniy10
LSep 26 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111111113E. Pismenniy6.009820WSep 26 · 03:25R. Reznychenko2.208670E. Pismenniy1.611111113LSep 26 · 02:25E. Pismenniy2.631111121182R. Cherevko1.44691413113LSep 26 · 01:25E. Pismenniy6.501181191A. Tuzhylin1.1051113113WSep 25 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.5011411113V. Melnik1.50711371WSep 25 · 21:55E. Pismenniy3.0011711123Y. Masko1.368116101WSep 20 · 19:55Y. Masko1.536118141E. Pismenniy2.3811811163LSep 20 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.11511713113E. Pismenniy6.00116111172LSep 20 · 17:25S. Hohenko1.3691111113E. Pismenniy3.00116461LSep 13 · 15:55V. Melnik1.50531111113E. Pismenniy2.5011118792
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