TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Kyienko vs Oleh Karpenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Serhii Kyienko
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811116711115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:56 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kyienko to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kyienko above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Serhii Kyienko at 60.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kyienko 4–1 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kyienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kyienko
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kyienko 1698 vs Karpenko 1563
Kyienko
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kyienko 60% vs Karpenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kyienko 80% vs Karpenko 50%
Kyienko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kyienko +3 · Karpenko -1
Kyienko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kyienko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKyienko 1.53 / Karpenko 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kyienko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13190486
Kyienko1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 14 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Karpenko2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back31% 30 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKyienko4wins
AwayKarpenko1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKyienko leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKyienko75%3 of 4
AwayKarpenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kyienko4Karpenko1n = 5Kyienko took 4 of 5
S2Kyienko3Karpenko2n = 5Kyienko took 3 of 5
S3Kyienko1Karpenko4n = 5Karpenko took 4 of 5
S4Kyienko3Karpenko2n = 5Kyienko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKyienkoKarpenkoKyienko − KarpenkoBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match44.438.2+6.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyienkoKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 157 vs 362 / 69056.7%52.5%89 / 157 vs 362 / 690Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyienkoKyienko 1.53/Karpenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Kyienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kyienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 25 · 06:30S. Kyienko48118117113O. Karpenko3961161152
LSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko381197111O. Karpenko4161111133
WDec 1 · 09:35S. Kyienko578111413113O. Karpenko46112161162
WOct 8 · 09:30S. Kyienko4011115133O. Karpenko336511111
WSep 1 · 06:35S. Kyienko3911115123O. Karpenko324711101
S. Kyienko10
WSep 25 · 05:30A. Martyniuk2.2011671172S. Kyienko1.61811118113WSep 18 · 11:30S. Kyienko2.10971111113A. Troyan1.6711115482WSep 18 · 09:30Y. Kovshun1.9110560S. Kyienko1.801211113LSep 18 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.5081311113S. Kyienko1.501111871LSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.441197111O. Karpenko2.6361111133WAug 8 · 19:00S. Kyienko1.731111113O. Osadchyi2.009790WAug 8 · 17:00V. Smyk5.001169121S. Kyienko1.1491111143WAug 8 · 15:00V. Melnykov4.008670S. Kyienko1.221111113LAug 8 · 14:00S. Kyienko1.408680O. Lipeiko2.75111182WAug 8 · 13:00O. Tymofeev2.63117351S. Kyienko1.4491111113
O. Karpenko10
LSep 25 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.40111311113O. Karpenko2.75415881WSep 23 · 11:30A. Troyan1.61111110652O. Karpenko2.20791211113WSep 23 · 10:00O. Karpenko2.001191110133O. Volynets1.73911612112LSep 23 · 08:00D. Khairov2.3811116113O. Karpenko1.53871141WSep 23 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov1.8311129972O. Karpenko1.836101111113WSep 23 · 05:00I. Emets3.259111191O. Karpenko1.3311813113LSep 18 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.20116611113O. Karpenko1.6141111572LSep 18 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6711511133O. Karpenko2.105116111LSep 18 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.679111115113O. Karpenko2.1011971772WSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.441197111O. Karpenko2.6361111133
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