TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Guzik vs Andriej Fomin 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 13Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 13
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161151113117––
Andriej Fomin
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Michal Guzik at 70.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 5–1 Andriej Fomin Andriej Fomin has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Guzik
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1687 vs Fomin 1455
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 233 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 100% vs Fomin 40%
Guzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 100% vs Fomin 40%
Guzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +13 · Fomin -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Guzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.40 / Fomin 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Guzik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13188899
Guzik1.40
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 13
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 156 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it98% 91 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it91% 114 of 126
Fomin2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 63 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back35% 25 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGuzik5wins
AwayFomin1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderGuzik leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%4 of 4
AwayFominn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik4Fomin2n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S2Guzik4Fomin2n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S3Guzik5Fomin1n = 6Guzik took 5 of 6
S4Guzik3Fomin0n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGuzikFominG − FBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.233.7+6.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikFominBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 221 vs 540 / 92575.1%58.4%166 / 221 vs 540 / 925Avg sets wonper match2.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.40/Fomin 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 20 · 01:10M. Guzik48861111123A. Fomin46111159102
WSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik331111113A. Fomin209560
LAug 4 · 24:00M. Guzik44115111162A. Fomin49131195113
WJul 27 · 16:15M. Guzik331111113A. Fomin249870
WJul 19 · 22:35M. Guzik361114113A. Fomin2571260
WJul 19 · 15:00M. Guzik47111112133A. Fomin388514111
M. Guzik10
WSep 24 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171211113J. Skorupa4.5010780WSep 24 · 15:00M. Guzik1.281111113J. Michalik3.504670WSep 21 · 01:45K. Rybak9.0011115792M. Guzik1.04491111113WSep 21 · 01:00Z. Nocun6.5061170M. Guzik1.101113113WSep 21 · 24:10M. Guzik1.17611711113G. Mucha4.5011411892WSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.1711119113J. Skorupa4.50681191WSep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.7511771342M. Guzik1.407111111113WSep 20 · 20:30M. Guzik1.1711111110113G. Mucha4.5091321292WSep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.201111113Z. Nocun4.337440WSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061
A. Fomin10
WSep 24 · 17:20A. Fomin1.571251111123J. Michalik2.25141188102LSep 24 · 15:25A. Fomin1.6728111162M. Karpiuk2.10111186113LSep 20 · 02:45A. Fomin1.9011680H. Tkaczyk1.751311113LSep 20 · 01:10A. Fomin2.40111159102M. Guzik1.50861111123WSep 20 · 24:00A. Fomin1.5713811113D. Pyrek2.251111841WSep 19 · 22:25A. Fomin1.57891211113A. Kubiak2.20111110992LSep 19 · 21:10A. Fomin2.0565110J. Skorupa1.651111133WSep 19 · 20:00A. Kubiak2.3553111132A. Fomin1.54111169113LSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik1.541111113A. Fomin2.259560LSep 19 · 18:25A. Fomin1.9511137692H. Tkaczyk1.749111111113
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