TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Guzik vs Jakub Skorupa 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 14Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 14
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117118––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Michal Guzik at 75.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 18–2 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 2 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-2 in 20
Guzik
Correct
gap of 16 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1693 vs Skorupa 1351
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 343 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 100% vs Skorupa 60%
Guzik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 100% vs Skorupa 40%
Guzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +14 · Skorupa -1
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.17 / Skorupa 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Guzik)+6.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13186202
Guzik1.17
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 14
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 156 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it98% 91 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it91% 114 of 126
Skorupa4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 102 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back17% 29 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzik10wins
AwaySkorupa0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGuzik leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%6 of 6
AwaySkorupa0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik6Skorupa4n = 10Guzik took 6 of 10
S2Guzik4Skorupa6n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S3Guzik9Skorupa1n = 10Guzik took 9 of 10
S4Guzik8Skorupa1n = 9Guzik took 8 of 9
S5Guzik3Skorupa0n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzikSkorupaG − SBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.033.8+7.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 222 vs 330 / 68775.2%48%167 / 222 vs 330 / 687Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.17/Skorupa 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik4211119113J. Skorupa34681191
WSep 20 · 15:00M. Guzik331111113J. Skorupa219930
WSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik3611311113J. Skorupa27811351
WSep 19 · 15:10M. Guzik3741111113J. Skorupa25116441
WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik3811511113J. Skorupa34911681
WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik511081111113J. Skorupa4212116762
WAug 27 · 22:55M. Guzik45113128113J. Skorupa38211101142
WAug 27 · 16:55M. Guzik4211911113J. Skorupa29611661
WAug 23 · 24:10M. Guzik4021115123J. Skorupa4311913101
WAug 22 · 20:30M. Guzik46251111173J. Skorupa45111153152
M. Guzik10
WSep 24 · 16:15M. Guzik1.40111111113A. Fomin2.75651371WSep 24 · 15:00M. Guzik1.281111113J. Michalik3.504670WSep 21 · 01:45K. Rybak9.0011115792M. Guzik1.04491111113WSep 21 · 01:00Z. Nocun6.5061170M. Guzik1.101113113WSep 21 · 24:10M. Guzik1.17611711113G. Mucha4.5011411892WSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.1711119113J. Skorupa4.50681191WSep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.7511771342M. Guzik1.407111111113WSep 20 · 20:30M. Guzik1.1711111110113G. Mucha4.5091321292WSep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.201111113Z. Nocun4.337440WSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061
J. Skorupa10
WSep 24 · 18:30A. Fomin1.449590J. Skorupa2.631111113LSep 24 · 16:55J. Skorupa1.83111179102M. Karpiuk1.83441111123WSep 24 · 15:50J. Skorupa2.2011511113K. Kwiatkowski1.61811991WSep 24 · 02:35J. Skorupa2.0010111011113A. Kubiak1.7312512772LSep 24 · 01:00J. Skorupa2.1011970M. Lewczuk1.671311113WSep 23 · 23:45J. Skorupa1.407111415113A. Staniczek2.75114121752LSep 23 · 22:10J. Skorupa1.7312991182K. Delikatny2.001011118113LSep 23 · 21:00J. Skorupa2.2511810131Z. Nocun1.5781112153WSep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.405128111J. Skorupa2.75111011133LSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.1711119113J. Skorupa4.50681191
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