TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Skorupa vs Artur Kubiak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121151012117117
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:30 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Skorupa above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Artur Kubiak at 54.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Skorupa 8–15 Artur Kubiak Jakub Skorupa has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:30What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kubiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-15 in 23
Kubiak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1342 vs Kubiak 1344
Kubiak
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 40% vs Kubiak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 30% vs Kubiak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa -1 · Kubiak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kubiak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 2.00 / Kubiak 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kubiak)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13182437
Skorupa2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 101 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back16% 28 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 100
Kubiak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 161 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it84% 113 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorupa5wins
AwayKubiak5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupa66.7%4 of 6
AwayKubiak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa6Kubiak4n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S2Skorupa4Kubiak6n = 10Kubiak took 6 of 10
S3Skorupa7Kubiak3n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S4Skorupa3Kubiak4n = 7Kubiak took 4 of 7
S5Skorupa2Kubiak3n = 5Kubiak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorupaKubiakS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.6+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 684 vs 489 / 90248%54.2%328 / 684 vs 489 / 902Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakSkorupa 2.00/Kubiak 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 23:35J. Skorupa44101111752A. Kubiak48127711113
LSep 19 · 17:35J. Skorupa237970A. Kubiak331111113
WSep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa371214113A. Kubiak27101250
LSep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa34691181A. Kubiak3911116113
WAug 30 · 22:35J. Skorupa50111189113A. Kubiak4687111192
LAug 30 · 15:00J. Skorupa4411611972A. Kubiak49711911113
WAug 29 · 23:10J. Skorupa331111113A. Kubiak145540
LAug 29 · 17:10J. Skorupa481110512102A. Kubiak505121110123
WAug 25 · 02:20J. Skorupa48691111113A. Kubiak4211115692
WJul 18 · 23:10J. Skorupa4211911113A. Kubiak28411851
J. Skorupa10
LSep 24 · 01:00J. Skorupa2.1011970M. Lewczuk1.671311113WSep 23 · 23:45J. Skorupa1.407111415113A. Staniczek2.75114121752LSep 23 · 22:10J. Skorupa1.7312991182K. Delikatny2.001011118113LSep 23 · 21:00J. Skorupa2.2511810131Z. Nocun1.5781112153WSep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.405128111J. Skorupa2.75111011133LSep 21 · 01:25G. Mucha1.6112811113J. Skorupa2.201011861LSep 20 · 23:20K. Rybak4.00111298123J. Skorupa1.229101111102LSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.1711119113J. Skorupa4.50681191WSep 20 · 21:00Z. Nocun1.61812111492J. Skorupa2.201110816113LSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100
A. Kubiak10
LSep 24 · 01:25A. Kubiak1.83510140Z. Nocun1.831112163WSep 24 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10167311112A. Kubiak1.671411118133LSep 23 · 22:55A. Staniczek3.40111184113A. Kubiak1.3053111192WSep 23 · 21:20K. Delikatny2.25611531A. Kubiak1.5411711113LSep 23 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.7311134133A. Kubiak2.0071111111LSep 23 · 19:20A. Kubiak1.8311101161Z. Nocun1.8313128113LSep 23 · 18:10A. Skupinski2.63116165113A. Kubiak1.44611141182WSep 23 · 16:55A. Staniczek3.00121340A. Kubiak1.361415113WSep 23 · 15:25K. Delikatny2.25841181A. Kubiak1.5711115113LSep 22 · 02:20J. Michalik2.00311511163A. Kubiak1.71116118142
Upcoming Matches
J. Skorupa
Sep 24 · 15:50J. Skorupa—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 24 · 16:55J. Skorupa—M. Karpiuk——Sep 24 · 17:45J. Skorupa—M. Guzik——Sep 24 · 18:30J. Skorupa—A. Fomin——Sep 24 · 20:05J. Skorupa—J. Michalik——Sep 24 · 21:45J. Skorupa—M. Guzik——Sep 24 · 22:55J. Skorupa—M. Karpiuk——Sep 24 · 23:45J. Skorupa—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 25 · 24:35J. Skorupa—A. Fomin——Sep 25 · 02:10J. Skorupa—J. Michalik——
A. Kubiak
Nothing scheduled
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