TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Sulc vs Adam Martin Rek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
2.15
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171181012911115
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 95 set 5, 11-5
95 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 26–34 Adam Martin Rek Martin Sulc has won 26 of their 60 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sulc beat Rek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (20%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 2.15 / Rek 1.63
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Rek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13186436
Sulc2.15
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 73 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Rek1.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 101 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it72% 75 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulc4wins
AwayRek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulc50%3 of 6
AwayRek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc6Rek4n = 10Sulc took 6 of 10
S2Sulc5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S3Sulc1Rek9n = 10Rek took 9 of 10
S4Sulc2Rek6n = 8Rek took 6 of 8
S5Sulc3Rek1n = 4Sulc took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulcRekS − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.441.6−2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcRekBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 646 vs 313 / 54250.5%57.8%326 / 646 vs 313 / 542Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekSulc 2.15/Rek 1.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 19:55M. Sulc56161199113A. Rek48143111192
WSep 7 · 15:20M. Sulc46111112123A. Rek347314101
LAug 31 · 10:50M. Sulc27811441A. Rek3611311113
LAug 30 · 22:30M. Sulc3013980A. Rek371511113
LAug 30 · 19:25M. Sulc37118991A. Rek4181111113
WAug 30 · 17:50M. Sulc47711117113A. Rek4611971182
LAug 30 · 15:50M. Sulc431610891A. Rek48141211113
WAug 17 · 13:25M. Sulc471111311113A. Rek4381311832
LAug 17 · 07:25M. Sulc3911116832A. Rek50891111113
LAug 8 · 18:10M. Sulc226970A. Rek331111113
M. Sulc10
WSep 23 · 21:25M. Sulc2.1071112113O. Fiklik1.671181071WSep 23 · 19:55A. Rek1.53143111192M. Sulc2.38161199113LSep 23 · 19:25J. Hrncir1.831211113M. Sulc1.8310770WSep 20 · 17:35M. Sulc3.00913116123J. Vonasek1.361111911102LSep 20 · 16:50P. Rissky2.10711135113M. Sulc1.67112111122LSep 20 · 15:50M. Sulc2.10117861O. Fiklik1.6781111113WSep 20 · 14:20J. Vonasek1.536510M. Sulc2.381111113WSep 20 · 13:59M. Sulc1.6771311113P. Rissky2.101111611WSep 20 · 12:50M. Sulc2.101211123O. Fiklik1.67108100WSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113
A. Rek10
LSep 23 · 20:55A. Rek1.57611101152J. Hrncir2.25119126113LSep 23 · 19:55A. Rek1.53143111192M. Sulc2.38161199113LSep 23 · 18:55A. Rek1.5777111192O. Fiklik2.25111159113WSep 17 · 10:38O. Fiklik2.2510960A. Rek1.571211113LSep 17 · 09:25A. Rek1.57111259102O. Fiklik2.259101111123WSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123WSep 17 · 07:25P. Moravec2.50211751A. Rek1.5011711113LSep 16 · 10:30A. Rek1.5011781542V. Jr2.459111113113WSep 16 · 09:25V. Jr2.50615331A. Rek1.50111311113WSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581
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