TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118711811611––
Ondrej Fiklik
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Fiklik to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Ondrej Fiklik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Fiklik at 55.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 17–20 Ondrej Fiklik Martin Sulc has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sulc beat Fiklik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:23What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fiklik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Fiklik
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulc 1592 vs Fiklik 1541
Sulc
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulc 100% vs Fiklik 40%
Sulc
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulc 60% vs Fiklik 40%
Sulc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulc +5 · Fiklik +2
Sulc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fiklik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fiklik form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 2.10 / Fiklik 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fiklik)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13163894
Sulc2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Fiklik1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 83 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it72% 55 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulc3wins
AwayFiklik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFiklik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulc66.7%2 of 3
AwayFiklik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc3Fiklik7n = 10Fiklik took 7 of 10
S2Sulc4Fiklik6n = 10Fiklik took 6 of 10
S3Sulc4Fiklik6n = 10Fiklik took 6 of 10
S4Sulc1Fiklik4n = 5Fiklik took 4 of 5
S5Sulc2Fiklik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulcFiklikS − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.537.7−3.2per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcFiklikBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 644 vs 558 / 121550.5%45.9%325 / 644 vs 558 / 1215Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiklikSulc 2.10/Fiklik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fiklik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fiklik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 12:50M. Sulc351211123O. Fiklik28108100
LSep 9 · 21:20M. Sulc4671111982O. Fiklik41114411113
WSep 9 · 20:20M. Sulc47811116113O. Fiklik3611271152
LSep 2 · 20:20M. Sulc2510780O. Fiklik341211113
LAug 9 · 13:25M. Sulc31912731O. Fiklik43111011113
LAug 8 · 15:55M. Sulc2381140O. Fiklik351113113
WJul 31 · 14:50M. Sulc51119119113O. Fiklik4591191152
LJul 24 · 07:55M. Sulc248880O. Fiklik331111113
LJun 28 · 19:50M. Sulc4611961192O. Fiklik49711119113
LJun 28 · 07:50M. Sulc175660O. Fiklik331111113
M. Sulc10
WSep 20 · 14:20J. Vonasek1.536510M. Sulc2.381111113WSep 20 · 13:59M. Sulc1.6771311113P. Rissky2.101111611WSep 20 · 12:50M. Sulc2.101211123O. Fiklik1.67108100WSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113LSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113
O. Fiklik10
LSep 20 · 16:20J. Vonasek2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73991191WSep 20 · 14:50O. Fiklik1.801112113P. Rissky1.9191090WSep 20 · 13:30A. Langer1.859880O. Fiklik1.851111113LSep 20 · 12:50M. Sulc2.101211123O. Fiklik1.67108100LSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:20A. Langer1.83111349113O. Fiklik1.83811111162LSep 18 · 10:38J. Vonasek2.10111115133O. Fiklik1.673917111WSep 18 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.83116118113A. Langer1.8381161182WSep 18 · 07:55V. Jr2.2011129932O. Fiklik1.617101111113LSep 18 · 07:25J. Vonasek1.911110711213O. Fiklik1.80612117192
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