TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Holomek vs Patrik Muller 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Tomas Holomek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117119––––
Patrik Muller
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Holomek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Holomek above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Holomek at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Holomek 5–5 Patrik Muller Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holomek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holomek 1207 vs Muller 1201
Holomek
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holomek 100% vs Muller 60%
Holomek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holomek 50% vs Muller 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holomek +5 · Muller -1
Holomek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holomek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holomek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolomek 1.80 / Muller 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holomek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13185725
Holomek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite31% won 10 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it50% 7 of 14
Muller1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back25% 7 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolomek5wins
AwayMuller5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolomek60%3 of 5
AwayMuller60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holomek5Muller5n = 10split evenly
S2Holomek2Muller8n = 10Muller took 8 of 10
S3Holomek8Muller1n = 9Holomek took 8 of 9
S4Holomek3Muller5n = 8Muller took 5 of 8
S5Holomek3Muller2n = 5Holomek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolomekMullerH − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.441.1+0.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolomekMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 125 vs 74 / 16544.8%44.9%56 / 125 vs 74 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolomekHolomek 1.80/Muller 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holomek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Holomek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 10 · 13:14T. Holomek45113117133P. Muller48911611112
WSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek5310101111113P. Muller4712127882
LJun 4 · 12:58T. Holomek35119781P. Muller4181111113
LJun 4 · 09:15T. Holomek4511611982P. Muller47511911113
LApr 23 · 11:15T. Holomek31981221P. Muller43111110113
WDec 23 · 17:51T. Holomek331111113P. Muller187740
LDec 23 · 16:00T. Holomek357711101P. Muller3711113123
LOct 24 · 10:45T. Holomek47710111182P. Muller45111256113
WApr 24 · 10:00T. Holomek491111111153P. Muller44111334132
T. Holomek10
WSep 24 · 10:30T. Holomek1.67111113113V. Kilian2.10761551WSep 24 · 09:30T. Holomek1.531111113A. Akopyan2.384470WSep 10 · 13:14P. Muller1.61911611112T. Holomek2.20113117133WSep 10 · 11:30T. Holomek1.83111811143A. Skyba1.83117119122WSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882LSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101
P. Muller10
LSep 24 · 12:43V. Kilian2.001111113P. Muller1.739640LSep 24 · 11:00P. Muller1.618540A. Akopyan2.201111113WSep 24 · 10:00P. Muller1.835111110113V. Kilian1.8311471222WSep 22 · 08:39P. Muller1.91191111113A. Skyba1.80217771LSep 22 · 07:30A. Skyba1.83127119113P. Muller1.83101151182WSep 22 · 07:00P. Muller1.671071211143A. Akopyan2.101211107122LSep 22 · 06:00P. Muller1.575740J. Vrnak2.251111113LSep 21 · 08:58L. Krutina1.36119117113P. Muller3.0051161142LSep 10 · 13:14P. Muller1.61911611112T. Holomek2.20113117133LSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882
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