TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Patrik Muller vs Jan Vrnak 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Patrik Muller
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711411––––
Jan Vrnak
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePatrik Muller to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Muller above · Jan Vrnak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 49 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Patrik Muller at 60.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Muller 6–4 Jan Vrnak Jan Vrnak has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:54What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Muller
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Muller
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1198 vs Vrnak 1180
Muller
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 40% vs Vrnak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 40% vs Vrnak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -1 · Vrnak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Muller) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.57 / Vrnak 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Muller)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13172898
Muller1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 8 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it70% 7 of 10
Vrnak2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 20 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back8% 2 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller6wins
AwayVrnak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller83.3%5 of 6
AwayVrnak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller6Vrnak4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S2Muller6Vrnak4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S3Muller4Vrnak6n = 10Vrnak took 6 of 10
S4Muller3Vrnak2n = 5Muller took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerVrnakM − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.534.1−0.6per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerVrnakBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 160 vs 96 / 21944.4%43.8%71 / 160 vs 96 / 219Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.57/Vrnak 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vrnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 06:00P. Muller165740J. Vrnak331111113
LSep 18 · 08:44P. Muller3911118362J. Vrnak46851111113
WSep 18 · 06:00P. Muller48911124123J. Vrnak471151011102
WSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller4112117113J. Vrnak351091151
WJun 4 · 10:45P. Muller331111113J. Vrnak185760
WJul 8 · 16:40P. Muller3711411113J. Vrnak31911921
LJul 8 · 14:30P. Muller2681080J. Vrnak341112113
WJun 16 · 09:30P. Muller4311129113J. Vrnak379101171
WJun 3 · 13:00P. Muller331111113J. Vrnak279990
LJun 3 · 12:00P. Muller193790J. Vrnak331111113
P. Muller10
LSep 21 · 08:58L. Krutina1.36119117113P. Muller3.0051161142WSep 21 · 07:30P. Muller1.91711117123A. Skyba1.80116911102LSep 21 · 06:30P. Muller2.75491281L. Krutina1.40111110113WSep 21 · 05:30P. Muller3.00911711133M. Holub1.36118115112LSep 18 · 08:44P. Muller1.4411118362J. Vrnak2.63851111113LSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113LSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub1.4091111123P. Muller2.751174101WSep 18 · 06:00J. Vrnak2.751151011102P. Muller1.40911124123LSep 10 · 13:14P. Muller1.61911611112T. Holomek2.20113117133WSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller1.5312117113J. Vrnak2.381091151
J. Vrnak10
WSep 22 · 06:30A. Skyba1.5711101171J. Vrnak2.2571213113WSep 18 · 08:44P. Muller1.4411118362J. Vrnak2.63851111113LSep 18 · 07:30M. Holub1.40781111113J. Vrnak2.7511117992LSep 18 · 07:00J. Vrnak3.501141081D. Sabuka1.2841112113LSep 18 · 06:00J. Vrnak2.751151011102P. Muller1.40911124123WSep 10 · 12:43J. Vrnak2.38119114113A. Skyba1.5351131132LSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller1.5312117113J. Vrnak2.381091151LSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771WSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562
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