TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Potapov vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711911114611
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:22 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 60.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 10–20 Oleksandr Storozhenko Mykhailo Potapov has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-20 in 30
Storozhenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1539 vs Storozhenko 1542
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Storozhenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 40% vs Storozhenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -1 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.25 / Storozhenko 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Storozhenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13185635
Potapov2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 23)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Storozhenko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 23)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 163 of 295
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it68% 106 of 155
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov4wins
AwayStorozhenko6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov66.7%2 of 3
AwayStorozhenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S2Potapov6Storozhenko4n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S3Potapov5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Potapov3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.237.9−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 432 vs 271 / 52247.2%51.9%204 / 432 vs 271 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoPotapov 2.25/Storozhenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 20:15M. Potapov4181111113O. Storozhenko30114871
LSep 21 · 13:55M. Potapov355101191O. Storozhenko4011126113
LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov34711971O. Storozhenko3811511113
WSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov4181111113O. Storozhenko34118961
LSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov27411571O. Storozhenko3911611113
WSep 7 · 23:45M. Potapov41114114113O. Storozhenko4381151182
LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov27511561O. Storozhenko4011711113
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov4013115113O. Storozhenko361191151
LSep 3 · 20:15M. Potapov33115891O. Storozhenko3961111113
LAug 20 · 20:15M. Potapov337101151O. Storozhenko4011126113
M. Potapov10
LSep 23 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80116861Y. Tebenko1.9181111113WSep 23 · 24:45M. Potapov1.8011412113I. Fashchevskyi1.917111051LSep 22 · 23:15M. Potapov1.8311661132D. Maltsev1.83611119113LSep 22 · 21:45M. Potapov2.20661171I. Pytsko1.6111119113WSep 22 · 20:15M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50114871WSep 21 · 18:25I. Pytsko1.616111081M. Potapov2.2011912113WSep 21 · 17:25Y. Parahailo1.6151211842M. Potapov2.201110811113LSep 21 · 15:55D. Maltsev1.8391111113M. Potapov1.83115951LSep 21 · 13:55O. Storozhenko1.5011126113M. Potapov2.505101191LSep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi2.0011101110113M. Potapov1.7361281282
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 24 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.25811421O. Storozhenko1.5711611113LSep 23 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.2091411113O. Storozhenko1.611112971WSep 23 · 01:45I. Pytsko2.0061281192O. Storozhenko1.731110118113WSep 23 · 24:15Y. Tebenko1.837740O. Storozhenko1.831111113LSep 22 · 22:15D. Maltsev1.91131145113O. Storozhenko1.80114111182LSep 22 · 20:15M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50114871LSep 21 · 18:55O. Storozhenko1.8312106141Y. Parahailo1.83101211163LSep 21 · 16:55D. Maltsev1.91111195113O. Storozhenko1.8096111192LSep 21 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi2.20981412113O. Storozhenko1.611111121062WSep 21 · 13:55O. Storozhenko1.5011126113M. Potapov2.505101191
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