TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Potapov vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1174111210115––
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 12–17 Ivan Fashchevskyi Mykhailo Potapov has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Potapov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-17 in 29
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1539 vs Fashchevskyi 1484
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 60% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Potapov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Fashchevskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -2 · Fashchevskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.80 / Fashchevskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Potapov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13173460
Potapov1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 47 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it82% 41 of 50
Fashchevskyi1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 88 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov3wins
AwayFashchevskyi7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov75%3 of 4
AwayFashchevskyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Potapov7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S3Potapov2Fashchevskyi8n = 10Fashchevskyi took 8 of 10
S4Potapov6Fashchevskyi2n = 8Potapov took 6 of 8
S5Potapov0Fashchevskyi4n = 4Fashchevskyi took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovFashchevskyiP − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.6−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 431 vs 297 / 59947.1%49.6%203 / 431 vs 297 / 599Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.80/Fashchevskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 11:55M. Potapov4661281282I. Fashchevskyi5311101110113
WSep 21 · 03:15M. Potapov341111123I. Fashchevskyi2679100
LSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov4381161172I. Fashchevskyi45115117113
LSep 8 · 03:15M. Potapov225890I. Fashchevskyi331111113
WSep 4 · 01:45M. Potapov4111811113I. Fashchevskyi31811661
LSep 2 · 04:35M. Potapov4081141162I. Fashchevskyi46116117113
WAug 20 · 23:15M. Potapov4111118113I. Fashchevskyi28571151
LAug 12 · 07:35M. Potapov32611691I. Fashchevskyi3611311113
LJul 31 · 14:55M. Potapov3811710101I. Fashchevskyi4491112123
LJul 25 · 04:25M. Potapov4571181182I. Fashchevskyi44117114113
M. Potapov10
LSep 22 · 23:15M. Potapov1.8311661132D. Maltsev1.83611119113LSep 22 · 21:45M. Potapov2.20661171I. Pytsko1.6111119113WSep 22 · 20:15M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50114871WSep 21 · 18:25I. Pytsko1.616111081M. Potapov2.2011912113WSep 21 · 17:25Y. Parahailo1.6151211842M. Potapov2.201110811113LSep 21 · 15:55D. Maltsev1.8391111113M. Potapov1.83115951LSep 21 · 13:55O. Storozhenko1.5011126113M. Potapov2.505101191LSep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi2.0011101110113M. Potapov1.7361281282WSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.8379100M. Potapov1.831111123WSep 21 · 01:45M. Potapov2.10511119113I. Pytsko1.6711791152
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 22 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi2.007690I. Pytsko1.731111113WSep 22 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.501191081I. Fashchevskyi2.5091112113LSep 22 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi2.25119691D. Maltsev1.5761111113LSep 21 · 17:55I. Fashchevskyi2.2571060D. Maltsev1.571112113WSep 21 · 16:25I. Fashchevskyi1.911110114123I. Pytsko1.80712811102WSep 21 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi2.20981412113O. Storozhenko1.611111121062WSep 21 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.6361111163Y. Parahailo1.441187141WSep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi2.0011101110113M. Potapov1.7361281282LSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.8379100M. Potapov1.831111123WSep 21 · 01:15V. Korobko1.537670I. Fashchevskyi2.381111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Potapov
I. Fashchevskyi
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.