TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Jurowicz vs Lukasz Oracz 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116115––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Jurowicz above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 57.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Jurowicz 14–25 Lukasz Oracz Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 14 of their 39 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Oracz beat Jurowicz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:16What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-25 in 39
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 11 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jurowicz 1282 vs Oracz 1361
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jurowicz 20% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jurowicz 40% vs Oracz 70%
Oracz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jurowicz -4 · Oracz +2
Jurowicz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJurowicz 2.20 / Oracz 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Oracz)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13177208
Jurowicz2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 92 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Oracz1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite63% won 372 of 587
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it82% 289 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJurowicz4wins
AwayOracz6wins
Oracz leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJurowicz100%4 of 4
AwayOracz100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jurowicz4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Jurowicz4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Jurowicz4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Jurowicz2Oracz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricJurowiczOraczJ − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.933.8−2.9per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJurowiczOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 798 vs 833 / 151439.4%55%314 / 798 vs 833 / 1514Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczJurowicz 2.20/Oracz 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jurowicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz271021141L. Oracz4212118113
WSep 8 · 23:45G. Jurowicz4011711113L. Oracz31711581
LSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz207760L. Oracz331111113
LMay 28 · 14:20G. Jurowicz2511860L. Oracz351311113
LMay 28 · 06:20G. Jurowicz2795130L. Oracz371111153
LMay 8 · 11:30G. Jurowicz381011981L. Oracz4312911113
WMay 8 · 07:10G. Jurowicz361114113L. Oracz2771280
WApr 14 · 15:55G. Jurowicz351212113L. Oracz26101060
LApr 14 · 09:55G. Jurowicz208480L. Oracz331111113
WApr 10 · 15:55G. Jurowicz4111118113L. Oracz31751181
G. Jurowicz10
WSep 22 · 23:45J. Nowak2.258870G. Jurowicz1.571111113LSep 22 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.504380G. Marud1.501111113LSep 22 · 19:40G. Jurowicz1.6191191192J. Nowak2.20119114113LSep 22 · 18:30G. Jurowicz2.386770M. Koczyba1.531111113LSep 22 · 17:20G. Jurowicz2.2010960M. Adamus1.611211113WSep 22 · 16:15G. Marud1.408980G. Jurowicz2.751111113LSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz2.251021141L. Oracz1.5712118113LSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691WSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113WSep 18 · 24:25G. Jurowicz3.15612116113P. Polok1.30111091192
L. Oracz10
WSep 22 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.7366111152L. Oracz2.00111187113WSep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.9179111172L. Oracz1.80111193113LSep 22 · 19:20L. Oracz1.73137611132M. Adamus2.001111115153WSep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.9110L. Oracz1.8063WSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz2.251021141L. Oracz1.5712118113LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113WSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.006970K. Hetnar1.731111113
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