TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Jurowicz vs Grzegorz Marud 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411311811––––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Jurowicz above · Grzegorz Marud below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 48 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 67.5%
48 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Jurowicz 3–4 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Jurowicz beat Marud 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jurowicz 1293 vs Marud 1368
Marud
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jurowicz 20% vs Marud 40%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jurowicz 50% vs Marud 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jurowicz -3 · Marud -1
Jurowicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJurowicz 2.50 / Marud 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Marud)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13176742
Jurowicz2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 92 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Marud1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite55% won 133 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it87% 80 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it70% 107 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJurowicz3wins
AwayMarud4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMarud leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJurowiczn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMarud66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jurowicz1Marud6n = 7Marud took 6 of 7
S2Jurowicz3Marud4n = 7Marud took 4 of 7
S3Jurowicz5Marud2n = 7Jurowicz took 5 of 7
S4Jurowicz3Marud1n = 4Jurowicz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricJurowiczMarudJ − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match28.934.3−5.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJurowiczMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 797 vs 656 / 137839.4%47.6%314 / 797 vs 656 / 1378Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudJurowicz 2.50/Marud 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 22 · 16:15G. Jurowicz331111113G. Marud258980
LSep 15 · 22:35G. Jurowicz23741111G. Marud4011117113
WSep 15 · 15:00G. Jurowicz3631111113G. Marud29116571
LSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz175660G. Marud331111113
LSep 8 · 17:45G. Jurowicz209470G. Marud331111113
LDec 23 · 23:00G. Jurowicz3536111142G. Marud51111199113
WDec 23 · 21:45G. Jurowicz3851111113G. Marud29117381
G. Jurowicz10
LSep 22 · 19:40G. Jurowicz1.6191191192J. Nowak2.20119114113LSep 22 · 18:30G. Jurowicz2.386770M. Koczyba1.531111113LSep 22 · 17:20G. Jurowicz2.2010960M. Adamus1.611211113WSep 22 · 16:15G. Marud1.408980G. Jurowicz2.751111113LSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz2.251021141L. Oracz1.5712118113LSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691WSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113WSep 18 · 24:25G. Jurowicz3.15612116113P. Polok1.30111091192WSep 17 · 22:50G. Jurowicz2.50111211113M. Tkocz1.45714451WSep 17 · 22:00M. Adamus1.57611861G. Jurowicz2.1511811113
G. Marud10
LSep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.9179111172L. Oracz1.80111193113WSep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73111112113J. Nowak2.00871421LSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:15G. Marud1.408980G. Jurowicz2.751111113WSep 22 · 15:00G. Marud1.80121211113M. Adamus1.9110101361WSep 22 · 05:05G. Marud1.57871111113P. Slosarczyk2.2011119972LSep 22 · 03:30G. Marud2.09111377112S. Szostok1.536111111133WSep 22 · 01:50G. Marud1.751112311113M. Sikon1.9571411762WSep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.91611911113M. Baron1.7811911882LSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113
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