TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Oracz vs Mariusz Adamus 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13117116111151315
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Mariusz Adamus below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 103 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Mariusz Adamus at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 20–18 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:16What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-18 in 38
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1334 vs Adamus 1355
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 80% vs Adamus 20%
Oracz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 60% vs Adamus 30%
Oracz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +2 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.73 / Adamus 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13177222
Oracz1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 372 of 587
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it82% 289 of 352
Adamus2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog43% won 176 of 414
Down 0–1, comes back21% 46 of 215
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz50%3 of 6
AwayAdamus75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Adamus4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Oracz4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Oracz5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S4Oracz4Adamus3n = 7Oracz took 4 of 7
S5Oracz2Adamus4n = 6Adamus took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczAdamusO − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.4−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime830 / 1511 vs 797 / 162754.9%49%830 / 1511 vs 797 / 1627Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.73/Adamus 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 19:20L. Oracz50137611132M. Adamus531111115153
WSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz481111510113M. Adamus4479111252
LSep 15 · 10:20L. Oracz36971191M. Adamus4111118113
LAug 17 · 21:05L. Oracz3711371152M. Adamus48911116113
LAug 8 · 01:00L. Oracz29123140M. Adamus411411163
WAug 7 · 15:50L. Oracz331111113M. Adamus239770
LAug 6 · 14:40L. Oracz48111111692M. Adamus50713811113
WAug 6 · 06:05L. Oracz331111113M. Adamus196760
LJun 26 · 13:55L. Oracz3931181162M. Adamus44117114113
WJun 26 · 07:55L. Oracz5911141211113M. Adamus51131610662
L. Oracz10
WSep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.9110L. Oracz1.8061WSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz2.251021141L. Oracz1.5712118113LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113WSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.006970K. Hetnar1.731111113LSep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.614101181M. Baron2.2011126113WSep 18 · 13:55K. Hetnar1.83111111652L. Oracz1.83813911113WSep 18 · 13:05J. Pelka2.00146591L. Oracz1.73121111113
M. Adamus10
WSep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.677811111M. Adamus2.1011111133WSep 22 · 17:20G. Jurowicz2.2010960M. Adamus1.611211113LSep 22 · 16:35J. Nowak1.731111107113M. Adamus2.0097121162LSep 22 · 15:00G. Marud1.80121211113M. Adamus1.9110101361LSep 20 · 08:00K. Juszczyk1.801610119123M. Adamus1.801412811102LSep 20 · 07:10W. Urban1.8311911113M. Adamus1.83911881LSep 20 · 06:25M. Adamus1.91910100W. Pytlas1.801112123WSep 20 · 04:50M. Adamus1.78811111143M. Paszkiewicz1.91111155122LSep 20 · 04:00P. Zemla1.4111128113M. Adamus2.604101131WSep 19 · 10:20M. Adamus1.78311811113R. Wojcik1.9111711952
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
M. Adamus
Sep 22 · 21:00M. Adamus1.73J. Nowak2.00—Sep 22 · 22:35M. Adamus1.73G. Marud2.00—Sep 22 · 23:20M. Adamus2.25M. Koczyba1.57—Sep 23 · 01:25M. Adamus2.20L. Oracz1.61—Sep 23 · 02:10M. Adamus1.53G. Jurowicz2.38—Sep 23 · 15:10M. Adamus—R. Wiza——Sep 23 · 16:50M. Adamus—M. Koczyba——Sep 23 · 17:35M. Adamus—K. Juszczyk——Sep 23 · 19:35M. Adamus—K. Hetnar——Sep 23 · 20:20M. Adamus—S. Krupa——
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