TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Lukasz Oracz 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611611118117511
Lukasz Oracz
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 54.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 10–9 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Oracz beat Koczyba 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:16What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1450 vs Oracz 1347
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.73 / Oracz 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Koczyba)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13177224
Koczyba1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite66% won 318 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it94% 165 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it80% 224 of 280
Oracz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As underdog42% won 120 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba5wins
AwayOracz5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba80%4 of 5
AwayOracz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Koczyba6Oracz4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba2Oracz6n = 8Oracz took 6 of 8
S5Koczyba3Oracz1n = 4Koczyba took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaOraczK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.7−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime861 / 1319 vs 831 / 151265.3%55%861 / 1319 vs 831 / 1512Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.73/Oracz 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba437911161L. Oracz4911119183
LSep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba30411961L. Oracz3911611113
LSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba248880L. Oracz331111113
LAug 11 · 18:10M. Koczyba2266100L. Oracz341111123
LAug 7 · 19:40M. Koczyba4312115782L. Oracz471041111113
WJul 22 · 22:50M. Koczyba48119116113L. Oracz4581171182
WJul 15 · 22:25M. Koczyba46115118113L. Oracz4261161182
WJul 9 · 01:10M. Koczyba4381111133L. Oracz351158111
WJun 30 · 18:25M. Koczyba4013511113L. Oracz351111761
WJun 24 · 21:35M. Koczyba44117114113L. Oracz4881191192
M. Koczyba10
LSep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.677811111M. Adamus2.1011111133WSep 22 · 18:30G. Jurowicz2.386770M. Koczyba1.531111113WSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691LSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981WSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113LSep 17 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.9310870P. Polok1.721211113
L. Oracz10
WSep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.9179111172L. Oracz1.80111193113LSep 22 · 19:20L. Oracz1.73137611132M. Adamus2.001111115153WSep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.9110L. Oracz1.8063WSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz2.251021141L. Oracz1.5712118113LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113WSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.006970K. Hetnar1.731111113LSep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.614101181M. Baron2.2011126113
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba
Sep 22 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57M. Adamus2.25—Sep 23 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.40G. Jurowicz2.75—Sep 23 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.73G. Marud2.00—Sep 23 · 16:00M. Koczyba—S. Krupa——Sep 23 · 16:50M. Koczyba—M. Adamus——Sep 23 · 18:25M. Koczyba—K. Hetnar——Sep 23 · 19:10M. Koczyba—R. Wiza——Sep 23 · 20:00M. Koczyba—K. Juszczyk——
L. Oracz
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.