TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kosacky vs Petr Vanek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Adam Kosacky
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911311115911––
Petr Vanek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePetr Vanek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kosacky above · Petr Vanek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Petr Vanek at 57.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kosacky 6–13 Petr Vanek Adam Kosacky has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:39What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vanek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-13 in 19
Vanek
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosacky 1701 vs Vanek 1737
Vanek
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosacky 60% vs Vanek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosacky 50% vs Vanek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosacky -1 · Vanek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Vanek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosacky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosacky 2.50 / Vanek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Vanek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13176840
Kosacky2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 26 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Vanek1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 50 days ago (Aug 03) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 37 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosacky6wins
AwayVanek4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKosacky leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosacky100%3 of 3
AwayVanek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosacky3Vanek7n = 10Vanek took 7 of 10
S2Kosacky6Vanek4n = 10Kosacky took 6 of 10
S3Kosacky4Vanek6n = 10Vanek took 6 of 10
S4Kosacky3Vanek4n = 7Vanek took 4 of 7
S5Kosacky5Vanek1n = 6Kosacky took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosackyVanekK − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.2−2.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosackyVanekBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 607 vs 197 / 37255.7%53%338 / 607 vs 197 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanekKosacky 2.50/Vanek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Vanek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vanek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 8 · 19:55A. Kosacky196490P. Vanek331111113
LMay 2 · 22:35A. Kosacky32811491P. Vanek3711411113
WMay 2 · 21:25A. Kosacky48911611113P. Vanek4711811892
WApr 26 · 22:25A. Kosacky521111109113P. Vanek4295121152
LApr 26 · 18:55A. Kosacky4247111462P. Vanek511111612113
WApr 19 · 22:09A. Kosacky47119115113P. Vanek4561191182
LApr 19 · 20:55A. Kosacky228770P. Vanek331111113
WApr 3 · 20:55A. Kosacky42411511113P. Vanek4111611672
WMar 30 · 15:25A. Kosacky331111113P. Vanek219750
WFeb 26 · 16:55A. Kosacky42011155113P. Vanek52119131182
A. Kosacky10
LSep 22 · 16:25M. Brozek2.201111113A. Kosacky1.619550LSep 16 · 18:35J. Volek3.4071511133A. Kosacky1.3011136111WSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113WSep 16 · 16:25A. Kosacky1.441112113J. Hrncir2.6361070LSep 16 · 14:55J. Volek3.751111113A. Kosacky1.259680WSep 13 · 22:00O. Fiklik2.6091141182A. Kosacky1.45116118113WSep 13 · 20:50A. Kosacky1.441281310113O. Fiklik2.631011111292LSep 13 · 19:20D. Sykora3.251011411113A. Kosacky1.3312911752WSep 13 · 18:50V. Skokan2.631171191A. Kosacky1.4451113113LJun 7 · 18:30A. Kosacky1.361305111J. Kocab3.00111111133
P. Vanek10
WSep 22 · 15:55D. Hyza2.5011115982P. Vanek1.50771111113WAug 3 · 21:53P. Vanek1.44129118113M. Kulisek2.63101161192WAug 3 · 19:25M. Kulisek—81111992P. Vanek—118811113LAug 3 · 18:55P. Vanek2.209660D. Bochnak1.611111113LAug 3 · 18:55M. Prochazka2.0011119113P. Vanek1.73591151WAug 3 · 18:55M. Kulisek2.6381111992P. Vanek1.44118811113WAug 2 · 21:58P. Vanek1.80111145113M. Prochazka1.9179111182LAug 2 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.61119811113P. Vanek2.2031111742LAug 2 · 19:55M. Brozek2.001111113P. Vanek1.736860WAug 2 · 19:25P. Vanek2.00111136113M. Prochazka1.7379111172
Upcoming Matches
A. Kosacky
Nothing scheduled
P. Vanek
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