TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Naida vs Spartak Abalmaz 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711711119611––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 65.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 45–69 Spartak Abalmaz Oleksandr Naida has won 45 of their 114 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:56What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-69 in 114
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 24 in 114, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1586 vs Abalmaz 1547
Naida
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 80% vs Abalmaz 20%
Naida
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 70% vs Abalmaz 40%
Naida
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida +4 · Abalmaz -1
Naida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.50 / Abalmaz 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Abalmaz)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13173695
Naida2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 75 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back27% 28 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Abalmaz1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 156 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida5wins
AwayAbalmaz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida75%3 of 4
AwayAbalmaz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S2Naida3Abalmaz7n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S3Naida4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S4Naida5Abalmaz1n = 6Naida took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaAbalmazN − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.736.1−1.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 933 vs 421 / 83451.7%50.5%482 / 933 vs 421 / 834Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazNaida 2.50/Abalmaz 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 22:55O. Naida3711411113S. Abalmaz24511621
WSep 17 · 23:25O. Naida4181111113S. Abalmaz37118991
WSep 15 · 22:05O. Naida3611113113S. Abalmaz36891181
LSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2671270S. Abalmaz361114113
LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida197660S. Abalmaz331111113
WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida4011612113S. Abalmaz357111071
LAug 30 · 22:25O. Naida51111169142S. Abalmaz50571111163
LAug 28 · 13:35O. Naida2659120S. Abalmaz361111143
LAug 28 · 02:55O. Naida217950S. Abalmaz331111113
WAug 26 · 03:35O. Naida50981111113S. Abalmaz4111114692
O. Naida10
WSep 23 · 01:35S. Skachenko1.57912761O. Naida2.25111011113WSep 23 · 24:35O. Naida2.00711119123R. Gnoevoy1.73118611102WSep 22 · 23:35V. Khamurda1.9111114882O. Naida1.80651111113WSep 22 · 22:05O. Naida1.44711811123T. Ponomarenko2.63118117102LSep 22 · 03:25O. Naida1.83791151V. Khamurda1.8311116113LSep 22 · 01:55O. Naida2.10131310872R. Gnoevoy1.6711111211113WSep 22 · 24:25O. Naida2.631113113S. Skachenko1.4451170WSep 21 · 22:55O. Naida2.6311411113S. Abalmaz1.44511621WSep 21 · 21:25O. Naida1.44931215113T. Ponomarenko2.631111101362LSep 18 · 04:25O. Naida2.00101150D. Derevynskyi1.731213113
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 23 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy2.1081111113S. Abalmaz1.67118981WSep 23 · 01:05V. Khamurda2.251111751S. Abalmaz1.5713511113LSep 22 · 23:05T. Ponomarenko2.7511125113S. Abalmaz1.404101191LSep 22 · 21:05S. Skachenko1.809111110113S. Abalmaz1.9111591282LSep 22 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.919790WSep 22 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.501113113T. Ponomarenko2.5051140WSep 22 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy2.1091050S. Abalmaz1.671112113LSep 21 · 22:55O. Naida2.6311411113S. Abalmaz1.44511621LSep 21 · 21:55V. Khamurda2.251211113S. Abalmaz1.5710200WSep 18 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.0078100S. Abalmaz1.731111123
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