TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Naida vs Vitalii Khamurda 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911116511––
Vitalii Khamurda
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Khamurda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Vitalii Khamurda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Vitalii Khamurda at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 118–94 Vitalii Khamurda Vitalii Khamurda has won 94 of their 212 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:25What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Khamurda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
118-94 in 212
Naida
Wrong
gap of 24 in 212, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1543 vs Khamurda 1571
Khamurda
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 60% vs Khamurda 40%
Naida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 60% vs Khamurda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -1 · Khamurda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Khamurda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khamurda form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 1.83 / Khamurda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Khamurda)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13168686
Naida1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Khamurda1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida1wins
AwayKhamurda9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKhamurda leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida33.3%1 of 3
AwayKhamurda100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida3Khamurda7n = 10Khamurda took 7 of 10
S2Naida3Khamurda7n = 10Khamurda took 7 of 10
S3Naida3Khamurda7n = 10Khamurda took 7 of 10
S4Naida2Khamurda4n = 6Khamurda took 4 of 6
S5Naida1Khamurda4n = 5Khamurda took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaKhamurdaN − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.941.5−6.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaKhamurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 933 vs 472 / 88051.6%53.6%481 / 933 vs 472 / 880Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhamurdaNaida 1.83/Khamurda 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Khamurda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khamurda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 03:25O. Naida32791151V. Khamurda3911116113
LSep 18 · 02:25O. Naida48101111792V. Khamurda49129611113
WSep 15 · 23:05O. Naida531111812113V. Khamurda4446111492
LSep 15 · 01:55O. Naida246990V. Khamurda331111113
LSep 4 · 01:55O. Naida2211830V. Khamurda351311113
LSep 1 · 01:55O. Naida229940V. Khamurda331111113
LAug 30 · 23:55O. Naida47118111072V. Khamurda46411812113
LAug 28 · 17:35O. Naida4581171272V. Khamurda511181110113
LAug 28 · 01:25O. Naida4011421762V. Khamurda524111115113
LAug 26 · 01:35O. Naida165380V. Khamurda331111113
O. Naida10
LSep 22 · 01:55O. Naida2.10131310872R. Gnoevoy1.6711111211113WSep 22 · 24:25O. Naida2.631113113S. Skachenko1.4451170WSep 21 · 22:55O. Naida2.6311411113S. Abalmaz1.44511621WSep 21 · 21:25O. Naida1.44931215113T. Ponomarenko2.631111101362LSep 18 · 04:25O. Naida2.00101150D. Derevynskyi1.731213113LSep 18 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.73129611113O. Naida2.00101111792WSep 18 · 24:25R. Gnoevoy1.73721271O. Naida2.00111110113WSep 17 · 23:25O. Naida2.7581111113S. Abalmaz1.40118991WSep 17 · 22:25K. Hrynenko1.83671181O. Naida1.8311118113LSep 16 · 04:05O. Naida2.10611771R. Gnoevoy1.6711911113
V. Khamurda10
LSep 22 · 02:25V. Khamurda2.001210561S. Skachenko1.73101211113WSep 22 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.911111113T. Ponomarenko1.808540LSep 21 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.6711126682R. Gnoevoy2.109101111113WSep 21 · 21:55V. Khamurda2.251211113S. Abalmaz1.5710200LSep 18 · 03:25R. Gnoevoy2.20114811113V. Khamurda1.6161111792WSep 18 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.73129611113O. Naida2.00101111792LSep 18 · 01:25V. Khamurda2.38911137122S. Abalmaz1.531151111143LSep 17 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.807101261K. Hrynenko1.91111210113WSep 17 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.9181112113D. Derevynskyi1.801141081WSep 16 · 03:35S. Abalmaz1.53811951V. Khamurda2.3811911113
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