TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrey Troyan vs Yaroslav Kovshun 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1177116111012––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 65.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 43–85 Yaroslav Kovshun Andrey Troyan has won 43 of their 128 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-85 in 128
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 42 in 128, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1642 vs Kovshun 1583
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 80% vs Kovshun 40%
Troyan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 60% vs Kovshun 40%
Troyan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan +1 · Kovshun +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kovshun) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 2.75 / Kovshun 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kovshun)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13172965
Troyan2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 50 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back14% 15 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 69
Kovshun1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 98 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan5wins
AwayKovshun5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyan50%3 of 6
AwayKovshun50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan6Kovshun4n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S2Troyan5Kovshun5n = 10split evenly
S3Troyan3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Troyan5Kovshun3n = 8Troyan took 5 of 8
S5Troyan3Kovshun3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanKovshunT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.538.9+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 971 vs 337 / 62848.3%53.7%469 / 971 vs 337 / 628Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunTroyan 2.75/Kovshun 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 05:00A. Troyan351311113Y. Kovshun2311570
WSep 15 · 08:00A. Troyan43711311113Y. Kovshun4311911482
LSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan4511117972Y. Kovshun43641111113
LSep 11 · 08:00A. Troyan31611681Y. Kovshun4111811113
LSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan48119117102Y. Kovshun42411411123
WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan48118711113Y. Kovshun3871111272
LSep 5 · 09:50A. Troyan521112811102Y. Kovshun49314119123
LSep 4 · 08:00A. Troyan2788110Y. Kovshun351111133
WAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan47118611113Y. Kovshun4261111862
WAug 28 · 04:30A. Troyan3951211113Y. Kovshun331110391
A. Troyan10
WSep 22 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.753740A. Troyan1.401111113WSep 22 · 08:00A. Martyniuk2.1011118862A. Troyan1.67771111113LSep 22 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.7371211113A. Troyan2.001110481WSep 22 · 05:00O. Volynets2.204770A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 21 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.388390A. Troyan1.531111113WSep 21 · 10:00D. Khairov2.20911931A. Troyan1.6111511113WSep 21 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov3.00122671A. Troyan1.36101111113LSep 21 · 06:30A. Martyniuk2.501111133A. Troyan1.5069110LSep 21 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.731211113A. Troyan2.0010340LSep 18 · 11:30S. Kyienko2.10971111113A. Troyan1.6711115482
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 22 · 11:00A. Martyniuk1.839191161Y. Kovshun1.8311218113WSep 22 · 08:30O. Volynets1.837690Y. Kovshun1.831111113WSep 22 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.38114661Y. Kovshun1.5391111113LSep 22 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.6781111113Y. Kovshun2.10119651LSep 19 · 12:05Y. Makovka2.251615710113Y. Kovshun1.571413111282LSep 19 · 10:35Y. Kovshun2.257101191V. Kryvenko1.5711127113LSep 19 · 08:35A. Kotiash2.2011116113Y. Kovshun1.61961141WSep 19 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.809660Y. Kovshun1.911111113WSep 19 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.44411771Y. Kovshun2.6311811113LSep 18 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.7311119123Y. Kovshun2.009711101
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