TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Szotek vs Lukas Kern 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
David Szotek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711115511115811
Lukas Kern
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:50 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Szotek above · Lukas Kern below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 85 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Kern at 57.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H David Szotek 6–8 Lukas Kern David Szotek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:50What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kern
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Kern
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotek 1532 vs Kern 1578
Kern
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotek 0% vs Kern 20%
Kern
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotek 20% vs Kern 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotek -6 · Kern -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kern) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kern form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotek 2.25 / Kern 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kern)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13169928
Szotek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 46 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back28% 16 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Kern1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 61 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotek3wins
AwayKern7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKern leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotek50%3 of 6
AwayKern100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotek6Kern4n = 10Szotek took 6 of 10
S2Szotek5Kern5n = 10split evenly
S3Szotek2Kern8n = 10Kern took 8 of 10
S4Szotek3Kern4n = 7Kern took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotekKernS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.437.3−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotekKernBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 350 vs 140 / 27343.1%51.3%151 / 350 vs 140 / 273Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernSzotek 2.25/Kern 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 16:30D. Szotek4271151182L. Kern43115115113
LSep 10 · 20:30D. Szotek30119731L. Kern3741111113
WSep 9 · 20:58D. Szotek361114113L. Kern2871290
LSep 9 · 20:30D. Szotek26116451L. Kern3631111113
WSep 9 · 15:00D. Szotek4313712113L. Kern3911111071
LAug 31 · 10:30D. Szotek531111121092L. Kern48741412113
LAug 19 · 21:30D. Szotek185760L. Kern331111113
LAug 19 · 19:30D. Szotek26211851L. Kern3811511113
LAug 16 · 13:29D. Szotek2011450L. Kern351311113
WAug 16 · 10:00D. Szotek4011117113L. Kern36971191
D. Szotek10
WSep 22 · 16:59L. Kern1.61115111082D. Szotek2.20811512113LSep 22 · 15:00D. Szotek2.759950F. Nadymacek1.401111113LSep 22 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.611111113D. Szotek2.207360LSep 21 · 20:58Z. Pagac1.7331111113D. Szotek2.00116981LSep 21 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.7311520113D. Szotek2.006111871LSep 21 · 19:00R. Hudeczek2.101111113D. Szotek1.679580LSep 21 · 18:30D. Szotek1.919780Z. Pagac1.801111113WSep 13 · 17:00M. Chalupa1.8567120D. Szotek1.851111143LSep 13 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.101411113D. Szotek1.6712540WSep 13 · 15:30D. Szotek2.001115113M. Chalupa1.7391380
L. Kern10
LSep 22 · 16:59L. Kern1.61115111082D. Szotek2.20811512113LSep 22 · 15:30L. Kern2.0041151142M. Chalupa1.73117113113LSep 22 · 14:30F. Nadymacek1.441412113L. Kern2.63121080LSep 15 · 16:58T. Kypr1.53711611113L. Kern2.3811211792LSep 15 · 16:00L. Kern2.63117961T. Kypr1.4481111113WSep 15 · 15:30Z. Pagac3.257590L. Kern1.331111113LSep 15 · 14:00L. Kern1.505380M. Holub2.501111113LSep 10 · 21:29V. Burdik1.33631111113L. Kern3.2511115972WSep 10 · 20:30D. Szotek1.91119731L. Kern1.8041111113LSep 10 · 19:30L. Kern2.7571240V. Burdik1.401114113
Upcoming Matches
D. Szotek
Nothing scheduled
L. Kern
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