TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Artem Chepurnyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311119115711711
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 86 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 67.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 1–0 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chepurnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1761 vs Smyrnov 1540
Chepurnyi
Wrong
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 60% vs Smyrnov 20%
Chepurnyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 40% vs Smyrnov 20%
Chepurnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi +2 · Smyrnov -4
Smyrnov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 1.44 / Smyrnov 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13166951
Chepurnyi1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 162 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it93% 80 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it83% 127 of 154
Smyrnov2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 94 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back19% 24 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChepurnyi1wins
AwaySmyrnov0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChepurnyiSmyrnovC − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.051.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 933 vs 403 / 82759%48.7%550 / 933 vs 403 / 827Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiChepurnyi 1.44/Smyrnov 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 19 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi50118127123M. Smyrnov519111011102
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 21 · 02:25O. Gavryshko1.8312050A. Chepurnyi1.831411113WSep 21 · 24:25O. Mishchenko2.631181171A. Chepurnyi1.4471113113LSep 20 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.6367110O. Dukhovenko1.441111133LSep 20 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi2.20131110113A. Chepurnyi1.611171271WSep 20 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.6381111742A. Chepurnyi1.44115311113LSep 20 · 02:55O. Gavryshko1.835111011113A. Chepurnyi1.8311812582LSep 20 · 01:25Y. Kryvorotko1.611113113A. Chepurnyi2.2091180WSep 19 · 23:25M. Smyrnov2.209111011102A. Chepurnyi1.61118127123LSep 19 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.4411811113A. Chepurnyi2.63711391LSep 18 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.531111113A. Chepurnyi2.389770
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 21 · 02:55M. Smyrnov3.7513112101O. Dukhovenko1.25111311123LSep 21 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.911111143M. Smyrnov1.8074120LSep 20 · 22:55O. Mishchenko2.101111113M. Smyrnov1.679870LSep 20 · 21:54O. Gavryshko1.7311119113M. Smyrnov2.00751131WSep 20 · 04:25M. Smyrnov2.00111195113O. Gavryshko1.7397111182LSep 20 · 02:25Y. Kryvorotko1.6711118113M. Smyrnov2.10781151LSep 20 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko1.501113113M. Smyrnov2.5081170LSep 19 · 23:25M. Smyrnov2.209111011102A. Chepurnyi1.61118127123WSep 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko2.25771151M. Smyrnov1.5711116113LSep 12 · 18:35A. Shypilov2.001112113M. Smyrnov1.7371050
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