TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811115113711411
Artem Chepurnyi
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Artem Chepurnyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 82 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 64.4%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 87–117 Artem Chepurnyi Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 87 of their 204 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
87-117 in 204
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 30 in 204, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1561 vs Chepurnyi 1763
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 202 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 20% vs Chepurnyi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 30% vs Chepurnyi 50%
Chepurnyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko +1 · Chepurnyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chepurnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 2.63 / Chepurnyi 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13155498
Mishchenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 86 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back12% 17 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Chepurnyi1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 160 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it93% 80 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it82% 125 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko2wins
AwayChepurnyi8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko50%2 of 4
AwayChepurnyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko4Chepurnyi6n = 10Chepurnyi took 6 of 10
S2Mishchenko3Chepurnyi7n = 10Chepurnyi took 7 of 10
S3Mishchenko2Chepurnyi8n = 10Chepurnyi took 8 of 10
S4Mishchenko0Chepurnyi5n = 5Chepurnyi took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoChepurnyiM − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.237.3−7.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoChepurnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 1062 vs 550 / 93246.8%59%497 / 1062 vs 550 / 932Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiMishchenko 2.63/Chepurnyi 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 02:25O. Mishchenko421181581A. Chepurnyi48131113113
LSep 13 · 03:55O. Mishchenko156720A. Chepurnyi331111113
LSep 11 · 15:25O. Mishchenko27114391A. Chepurnyi4181111113
LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko27111060A. Chepurnyi361312113
LSep 4 · 18:55O. Mishchenko229850A. Chepurnyi331111113
WAug 29 · 21:55O. Mishchenko47111294113A. Chepurnyi46810111162
LAug 28 · 17:25O. Mishchenko2151060A. Chepurnyi341112113
LAug 23 · 21:25O. Mishchenko345111171A. Chepurnyi4411913113
WAug 23 · 01:25O. Mishchenko331111113A. Chepurnyi197750
LAug 17 · 01:25O. Mishchenko34119591A. Chepurnyi3961111113
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 20 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.50891181O. Mishchenko2.5011119113LSep 20 · 24:55O. Mishchenko3.00781171O. Gavryshko1.3611118113LSep 19 · 23:55Y. Kryvorotko1.22711713113O. Mishchenko4.00119111172LSep 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko2.25771151M. Smyrnov1.5711116113LSep 18 · 20:25Y. Kryvorotko1.2291111113O. Mishchenko4.00116331LSep 18 · 18:55O. Mishchenko1.9111681142P. Plakushchyi1.80711119113LSep 18 · 16:55O. Gavryshko1.36121244113O. Mishchenko3.001010111192WSep 18 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko1.61771191O. Mishchenko2.2011119113LSep 18 · 13:55A. Chepurnyi1.50111466113O. Mishchenko2.50912111172WSep 17 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.361111113E. Rubtsov3.005870
A. Chepurnyi10
LSep 20 · 02:55O. Gavryshko1.835111011113A. Chepurnyi1.8311812582LSep 20 · 01:25Y. Kryvorotko1.611113113A. Chepurnyi2.2091180WSep 19 · 23:25M. Smyrnov2.209111011102A. Chepurnyi1.61118127123LSep 19 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.4411811113A. Chepurnyi2.63711391LSep 18 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.531111113A. Chepurnyi2.389770WSep 18 · 18:25A. Chepurnyi2.20119138113Y. Kryvorotko1.61911111192WSep 18 · 17:25A. Chepurnyi1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254380LSep 18 · 15:55A. Chepurnyi1.83811111172O. Gavryshko1.83118138113WSep 18 · 13:55A. Chepurnyi1.50111466113O. Mishchenko2.50912111172WSep 14 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi1.4481111113I. Demchenko2.63119661
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