Pavel Plakushchyi vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Sep 21Finished

Pavel Plakushchyi

Home

1.91

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

1171141412––––

Mykyta Smyrnov

Away

1.80

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Pavel Plakushchyi to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Mykyta Smyrnov below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 14-12

Point 59 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 54.0%

59 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 22:24

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Smyrnov

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Plakushchyi 1636 vs Smyrnov 1555

Plakushchyi

Correct

both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Plakushchyi 40% vs Smyrnov 20%

Plakushchyi

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Plakushchyi 40% vs Smyrnov 30%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Plakushchyi -1 · Smyrnov -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Plakushchyi)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPlakushchyi 1.91 / Smyrnov 1.80

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Plakushchyi)+5.5pp

Setka Cup · #13166902

Plakushchyi1.91

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog34% won 86 of 251

Down 0–1, comes back16% 25 of 155

Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 87

Smyrnov1.80

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As favourite61% won 114 of 187

Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56

Up 1–0, closes it76% 81 of 107

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricPlakushchyiSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 705 vs 403 / 82544.5%48.9%314 / 705 vs 403 / 825Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Plakushchyi

Plakushchyi 1.91/Smyrnov 1.80

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Plakushchyi won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

P. Plakushchyi10