TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 55.8%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 0–1 Mykyta Smyrnov Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1550 vs Smyrnov 1570
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 20% vs Smyrnov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 20% vs Smyrnov 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -2 · Smyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Smyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 2.10 / Smyrnov 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Smyrnov)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166820
Mishchenko2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 87 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back12% 17 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 78
Smyrnov1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 114 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it76% 81 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMishchenko0wins
AwaySmyrnov1wins
Smyrnov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMishchenkoSmyrnovM − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match30.039.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 1063 vs 403 / 82446.8%48.9%497 / 1063 vs 403 / 824Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovMishchenko 2.10/Smyrnov 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko30771151M. Smyrnov3911116113
O. Mishchenko10
LSep 20 · 21:25O. Mishchenko2.50681171O. Dukhovenko1.5011116113LSep 20 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.6381111742A. Chepurnyi1.44115311113WSep 20 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.50891181O. Mishchenko2.5011119113LSep 20 · 24:55O. Mishchenko3.00781171O. Gavryshko1.3611118113LSep 19 · 23:55Y. Kryvorotko1.22711713113O. Mishchenko4.00119111172LSep 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko2.25771151M. Smyrnov1.5711116113LSep 18 · 20:25Y. Kryvorotko1.2291111113O. Mishchenko4.00116331LSep 18 · 18:55O. Mishchenko1.9111681142P. Plakushchyi1.80711119113LSep 18 · 16:55O. Gavryshko1.36121244113O. Mishchenko3.001010111192WSep 18 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko1.61771191O. Mishchenko2.2011119113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 20 · 21:54O. Gavryshko1.7311119113M. Smyrnov2.00751131WSep 20 · 04:25M. Smyrnov2.00111195113O. Gavryshko1.7397111182LSep 20 · 02:25Y. Kryvorotko1.6711118113M. Smyrnov2.10781151LSep 20 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko1.501113113M. Smyrnov2.5081170LSep 19 · 23:25M. Smyrnov2.209111011102A. Chepurnyi1.61118127123WSep 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko2.25771151M. Smyrnov1.5711116113LSep 12 · 18:35A. Shypilov2.001112113M. Smyrnov1.7371050LSep 12 · 17:35S. Kalenyk2.201111113M. Smyrnov1.619550WSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113LSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751
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