TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Taras Gil
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
311111311812101210
Ihor Kvak
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:06 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeTaras Gil to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTaras Gil above · Ihor Kvak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Taras Gil at 75.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Taras Gil 2–0 Ihor Kvak Ihor Kvak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Gil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gil 1571 vs Kvak 1436
Gil
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gil 60% vs Kvak 20%
Gil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gil 50% vs Kvak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gil -2 · Kvak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Gil) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gil form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGil 1.25 / Kvak 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Gil)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13162061
Gil1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 43 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it75% 33 of 44
Kvak3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGil2wins
AwayKvak0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderGil leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGilKvakG − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.035.5+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGilKvakBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 223 vs 35 / 6957.4%50.7%128 / 223 vs 35 / 69Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GilGil 1.25/Kvak 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Gil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 20 · 11:25T. Gil493111112123I. Kvak521113810102
WSep 19 · 18:55T. Gil331111113I. Kvak199730
T. Gil10
LSep 20 · 09:25D. Palii2.001111113T. Gil1.734850LSep 20 · 07:25S. Prus2.7591211113T. Gil1.401110991WSep 20 · 06:25T. Gil1.671211113M. Slozka2.1010630WSep 20 · 05:25O. Sydorchuk2.63117611102T. Gil1.44911119123WSep 19 · 18:55I. Kvak3.509730T. Gil1.281111113WSep 19 · 17:25T. Gil1.67711614113M. Slozka2.10118111242LSep 19 · 15:25O. Sydorchuk3.00511113113T. Gil1.3611711132LSep 19 · 13:25S. Prus3.0011119103T. Gil1.36741151LSep 19 · 12:25D. Palii2.38101111113T. Gil1.53128891WSep 12 · 10:55V. Kuzmych2.209511111T. Gil1.6111119133
I. Kvak10
WSep 20 · 09:55I. Kvak1.675111112113M. Slozka2.10119131092LSep 20 · 07:55O. Sydorchuk1.7361111113I. Kvak2.00113651LSep 20 · 05:55S. Prus1.80611611113I. Kvak1.9111711672LSep 20 · 04:55D. Palii1.9111127113I. Kvak1.807101161LSep 19 · 18:55I. Kvak3.509730T. Gil1.281111113WSep 19 · 16:55D. Palii1.7381171182I. Kvak2.00115115113LSep 19 · 14:55S. Prus2.251111113I. Kvak1.576650WSep 19 · 13:55I. Kvak1.671111113M. Slozka2.109680LSep 19 · 12:55O. Sydorchuk1.8311118123I. Kvak1.834411101WSep 5 · 18:55I. Kvak1.831111113M. Slozka1.835360
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