TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611117611116117
Ihor Kvak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Prus to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Ihor Kvak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Prus at 54.3%
87 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 2–2 Ihor Kvak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Prus beat Kvak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Prus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1483 vs Kvak 1450
Prus
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 80% vs Kvak 40%
Prus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 70% vs Kvak 30%
Prus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus +1 · Kvak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Prus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kvak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 1.80 / Kvak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Prus)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13161194
Prus1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 39 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Kvak1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePrus2wins
AwayKvak2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus2Kvak2n = 4split evenly
S2Prus2Kvak2n = 4split evenly
S3Prus2Kvak1n = 3Prus took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricPrusKvakP − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match29.322.3+7.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusKvakBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 416 vs 34 / 6548.1%52.3%200 / 416 vs 34 / 65Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.334.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrusPrus 1.80/Kvak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Prus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Prus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 19 · 14:55S. Prus331111113I. Kvak176650
WSep 5 · 14:55S. Prus331111113I. Kvak176380
LAug 2 · 07:25S. Prus229940I. Kvak331111113
S. Prus10
WSep 20 · 07:25S. Prus2.7591211113T. Gil1.401110991WSep 20 · 04:25S. Prus2.631211113M. Slozka1.4410680LSep 19 · 17:55S. Prus2.2011711932D. Palii1.6181141183WSep 19 · 16:25S. Prus1.7369121193O. Sydorchuk2.00111110582WSep 19 · 14:55S. Prus2.251111113I. Kvak1.576650WSep 19 · 13:25S. Prus3.0011119103T. Gil1.36741151WSep 19 · 11:55S. Prus2.631191113113M. Slozka1.4481181522WSep 19 · 01:49V. Korobko1.530411111S. Prus2.3811114133WSep 19 · 24:45S. Prus1.911212113O. Sydorchuk1.80101070LSep 18 · 23:45S. Prus2.257131281V. Korobko1.57111510113
I. Kvak10
LSep 20 · 04:55D. Palii1.9111127113I. Kvak1.807101161LSep 19 · 18:55I. Kvak3.509730T. Gil1.281111113WSep 19 · 16:55D. Palii1.7381171182I. Kvak2.00115115113LSep 19 · 14:55S. Prus2.251111113I. Kvak1.576650WSep 19 · 13:55I. Kvak1.671111113M. Slozka2.109680LSep 19 · 12:55O. Sydorchuk1.8311118123I. Kvak1.834411101WSep 5 · 18:55I. Kvak1.831111113M. Slozka1.835360LSep 5 · 16:55O. Hudyma1.50131179163I. Kvak2.501151111142LSep 5 · 14:55S. Prus3.401111113I. Kvak1.306380LSep 5 · 13:55I. Kvak2.3811114842I. Pytsko1.53761111113
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