TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116118––––
Mykola Slozka
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeMykola Slozka to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Mykola Slozka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Mykola Slozka at 68.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 10–13 Mykola Slozka Serhii Prus has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Prus beat Slozka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Slozka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Slozka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1452 vs Slozka 1573
Slozka
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 80% vs Slozka 40%
Prus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 60% vs Slozka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -1 · Slozka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Slozka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slozka form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 2.63 / Slozka 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Slozka)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13161039
Prus2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back18% 7 of 39
Slozka1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 69 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus2wins
AwaySlozka8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSlozka leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrus40%2 of 5
AwaySlozka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus5Slozka5n = 10split evenly
S2Prus0Slozka10n = 10Slozka took 10 of 10
S3Prus7Slozka2n = 9Prus took 7 of 9
S4Prus1Slozka7n = 8Slozka took 7 of 8
S5Prus1Slozka2n = 3Slozka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusSlozkaP − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.841.7−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusSlozkaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 415 vs 339 / 76448%44.4%199 / 415 vs 339 / 764Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlozkaPrus 2.63/Slozka 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.1%
Slozka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Prus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 19 · 11:55S. Prus551191113113M. Slozka4481181522
LSep 18 · 21:15S. Prus189540M. Slozka331111113
LSep 12 · 04:55S. Prus41113114122M. Slozka46311711143
LSep 11 · 14:55S. Prus367101181M. Slozka4211128113
LSep 11 · 24:45S. Prus23111381M. Slozka4291111113
WSep 6 · 10:25S. Prus45111211113M. Slozka38814881
LSep 5 · 13:25S. Prus28571151M. Slozka3811115113
LSep 4 · 21:45S. Prus4010911101M. Slozka4312118123
LAug 2 · 05:55S. Prus4511611892M. Slozka49711911113
S. Prus10
LSep 19 · 17:55S. Prus2.2011711932D. Palii1.6181141183WSep 19 · 16:25S. Prus1.7369121193O. Sydorchuk2.00111110582WSep 19 · 14:55S. Prus2.251111113I. Kvak1.576650WSep 19 · 13:25S. Prus3.0011119103T. Gil1.36741151WSep 19 · 11:55S. Prus2.631191113113M. Slozka1.4481181522WSep 19 · 01:49V. Korobko1.530411111S. Prus2.3811114133WSep 19 · 24:45S. Prus1.911212113O. Sydorchuk1.80101070LSep 18 · 23:45S. Prus2.257131281V. Korobko1.57111510113LSep 18 · 22:15S. Prus2.101141061D. Palii1.6751112113LSep 18 · 21:15S. Prus2.509540M. Slozka1.501111113
M. Slozka10
WSep 19 · 18:25O. Sydorchuk2.50116661M. Slozka1.5061111113WSep 19 · 15:55D. Palii1.83211501M. Slozka1.8311611103LSep 19 · 13:55I. Kvak1.671111113M. Slozka2.109680LSep 19 · 11:55S. Prus2.631191113113M. Slozka1.4481181522LSep 19 · 01:22M. Slozka1.281191371D. Palii3.5041115113WSep 19 · 24:15D. Palii2.00122881M. Slozka1.73101111113WSep 18 · 22:45V. Korobko2.0011111091M. Slozka1.7391312113WSep 18 · 21:15S. Prus2.509540M. Slozka1.501111113WSep 18 · 20:15O. Sydorchuk2.2573100M. Slozka1.571111123LSep 12 · 11:25D. Maltsev1.5791111113M. Slozka2.25115771
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